Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Chris Mooney and Michael Specter along with others did a lecture at MIT last April. MIT has put the video up online and it is well worth a view.

The topic was denialism and disinformation. How can so many people believe things that someone tells them with no critical thinking. (My post on Authoritarians goes along with this quite well I suspect)

I regularly get asked if the world is going to end in 2012, and amazingly I am still getting comments from buyers defending their purchase of the iRenew and Q-Ray bracelets!

I enjoy the stories but the day to day forecast is worthless.

I always enjoy reading the stories in the Farmers Almanac. It’s been around for a LONG time and they have good basic astronomical info in it. Although you can get much more precise info from free programs like Stellarium.

About this time every year they release their forecast for the upcoming winter. TV stations everywhere gobble it up and do news stories on what the coming winter will be like.

Great free publicity!

Just to be clear here, the day to day forecasts are made up. They will not have any accuracy over that of a pure guess.

Some real science: An average of all moderate to strong La Nina's shows a milder than normal winter for much of the U.S. and Eastern Canada.

If you want to know what the winter will be like, the only think I can tell you is that with a moderate to strong La Nina brewing, the Southeast will likely have a drier and slightly milder than  normal winter. The odds of this are about 65%. That means there is a 35% chance it will be colder than normal here!

Other parts of the country will vary. See the graphics.

This kind of long range forecast is only possible because the La Nina pattern of colder than normal water in the Equatorial Pacific will cause a fairly predictable shift in the storm track over North America. The affects will actually be felt world wide.

Temperature anomalies for January during La Nina events. Images from NOAA. Click for full size image.

However, not every La Nina winter is the same. Each one is slightly different. Sometimes the La Nina pattern will hardly show up at all in some areas. Sometimes the expected warm areas are super warm.

The temperature anomalies in January for La Nina years shows that it’s quite warm in the Southeast U.S. most of the time but not always. The La Nina winters of 1971 and 1976 were slightly below normal over the Eastern U.S.

A scientific forecast would be for a good chance of having a mild winter in the Southeast. For those of you in Western Canada, a colder than normal winter seems like a good bet. Sometimes it is a super cold winter as well.

Just what you folks in Edmonton wanted to hear, isn’t it!

Later,
Dan

Data from the Univ. of Illinois shows the NW Passage is now mainly clear of ice.

Meteorologist Jeff Masters has a lot more about it, but the NW Passage is now mainly free of ice and is navigable. You can see a cool 30 day animation of the melt here. It looks like the NE Passage from Europe to Alaska is almost free as well. Masters says this is the 4th consecutive year that the passage has opened. It’s also the 4th time in recorded history.

The sea ice will continue to melt for a couple of more weeks but the big freeze is already starting above 80 degrees. There were already signs of summer’s end when I was in Greenland three weeks ago.

The real story is not so much the amount of ice on the surface but the overall volume of the ice. This too is dropping very rapidly.  Look at the graphic below from the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington.

Dr. Masters has an excellent detailed writeup on this with a commentary that is spot on.

The surface sea ice melt will not reach a new record this year but it will be close.

The great melt off at the top of the World continues.

Predictions made 20 years ago by Hansen and others that climate change would show up first and most strongly in the Arctic have certainly been proven true…

from Church J.A. and White N.J. "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise" Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602

NASA’s top climate scientist James Hansen has put together a new website. It basically updates the graphics in his book “Storms of My Grandchildren“. Definitely worth checking out for the graphics which are from papers published in the peer reviewed literature.

If you have not read the book, I highly recommend it. It’s even available for iPad and Kindle (Which makes me happy since I pretty much read everything on my iPad now).

I recently read a fascinating book. It’s called the Authoritarians and it was written by Robert Altemeyer. Altemeyer is a professor of Psychology at the University of Manitoba. You can read his  book online for free or buy it from amazon.com.

I stumbled  across it doing research on climate skepticism. I have often wondered why some people are totally immune to facts. I’m talking about the kind of person who, if you tell them the sky is blue, and walk outside and show them the sky is blue, will still tell someone a day later that the sky is not blue!

Why do I care?

Basically I want to know when I am wasting my time talking with someone! Not just about climate science but nearly any kind of science! If Altemeyer is right, then if the person I am talking to is a strong authoritarian, then I am truly wasting my time. Nothing I can say and no amount of scientific fact will change their mind.

Am I one?

Reading the book, the first thing I started wondering about was the obvious question- Am I an authoritarian???

Thankfully, according to the test devised by Altemeyer I’m not!

This is good since his research indicates that people who are, tend to be more likely to be prejudiced, and to commit torture and other crimes in the name of the government. They have a high degree of obedience to established authorities. They also tend to be lower educated and have almost no ability to do critical thinking.

Most importantly they tend to be heavy traditionalists.  In a sense they are the opposite of those bumper stickers you see that say question authority!

The American Assoc. for The Advancement of Science awarded Altemeyer the Behavioral Science Prize for his research. (The AAAS is one of the world’s top science organizations.)

The reason these people cannot be convinced by facts is that they let others do their thinking for them. In fact, they seem to have almost no critical thinking skills.They are more likely to associate with others who have their viewpoints than the average person. So much so that they rarely meet others who have differing opinions and only watch TV news that agrees with their viewpoint as well.

So you may be wondering by now if you are an authoritarian! If not, you probably are!

You can read the book and take the test and score yourself. I highly recommend reading it. The research says that those who are strong authoritarians will not finish it. Moreover it predicts I will get nasty notes and maybe even death threats for talking about it!

I will let you know if that happens!

The Test

Here are 3 questions from the 22 question test. You answer on a scale of +4= strongly agree to -4 strongly disagree. Any number you choose from +4 to -4 is OK and scored differently.

5. It is always better to trust the judgment of the proper authorities in government and
religion than to listen to the noisy rabble-rousers in our society who are trying to create
doubt in people’s minds
___ 6. Atheists and others who have rebelled against the established religions are no doubt every bit as good and virtuous as those who attend church regularly.
___ 7. The only way our country can get through the crisis ahead is to get back to our traditional values, put some tough leaders in power, and silence the troublemakers spreading bad ideas.

Intrigued??

One question more from the test-

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH NUDIST CAMPS.
Are you a plus 4 or a -4 or somewhere in between??

Apparently about 15% of the population are authoritarians. Altemeyer calls them “right wing authoritarians” but cautions that right wing does not have the same political meaning it does in America.

What is even more interesting is that research has shown that about 15% of the population thinks climate change is a hoax or a conspiracy and this is about the same number of people who are high authoritarians. Just a coincidence? I do not think so after reading the book.

His research is certainly controversial, but it is science, and therefore fair game for this journal. While his research has gotten rave reviews there are a few psychologists that disagree.  Not many it seems…

My score and opinion are my own and I will keep them to myself. Fascinating though, very fascinating…

Comments welcome, but read the comment policy first because I will apply it very stringently to this post.