Dan’s Wild Wild Weather Journal

One of the last things I had to do before I finished my Masters in Earth Science was a presentation on James Hutton. Hutton is not one of the famous great scientists like Newton, Darwin or Galileo. He probably deserves to be a name that everyone knows, but such is not the case.

Hutton is known today as the founder of modern Geology. He was a Scottish naturalist who had a medical degree but never practiced. He was also a farmer who gave it up to do chemistry and study rocks and minerals. He had some famous friends, like Joseph Black the person who discovered Carbon Dioxide.

They invited him to join the Royal Society of Scotland. This was (and still is) a prestigious organization of the brightest minds of the time.

Hutton lived in the 18th century and after much prodding he agreed to deliver a paper to the society stating his views on the age of the earth. He created a sensation when his paper to the societywas published. In it he made his famous statement (Well famous to Geologists at least) that in regard to the age of the earth “We see no vestige of a beginning and no prospect of an end”. In an age where almost everyone believed the Earth was no more than 6,000 years old, this was a phenomenal statement.

The criticism came almost at once. Much of it from the religious leaders of the day who believed it to contradict the bibles version of earth history. Even Isaac Newton ,before his death, had pondered the question. He came up with about 6,000 years. In an age where you could still be put under house arrest for offending the church this was a safe thing to do!

Hutton’s study of rocks and the earth had convinced him that the fossils he saw in rocks were from once living animals and that the only way that fossils on a mountain top could be there, was if that land had once been beneath an ocean. Since he believed that the same processes acting now acted in the past, the only explanation for this was time..DEEP TIME. Time so liong that it was almost impossible to imagine.

Hutton never gave an age for the earth but probably thought it could be millions of years old at least. We know now that it is 4,500 million years old-give or take.

To prove his theroy, he searched for what geologists now call an unconformity. A sequence of rocks with a missing gap of time in them. Imagine if you will a set of rocks from 500 million years ago on top of rocks from 900 million years sgo. What happened to the rocks in the missing 400 million years? That is an unconformity.

Hutton found his unconformity on a sunny June day in the late 1700’s off the coast of Scotland. The location, then and now is called Siccar Point. It is south of Edinburgh and his a place of homage for Geologists the world over. It is called Hutton’s Unconformity. This sequence of rocks went a long way in proving his theories. I hope to visit it the next time I am in beautiful Scotland.

If you want to learn more about James Hutton, I highly recommend the following book:
The Man Who Found Time: James Hutton and the Discovery of Earth’s Antiquity

by Jack Repchek

It takes courage to stand up and tell everyone that what they have always thought about something is wrong. Hutton did just that. Perhaps someday he will be given the same recognition of other brilliant scientists like Einstein, Darwin, Newton and Galileo.

Cheers,

Dan

Well, we finally broke the heat wave. Many areas had some heavy rains over the last 48 hours as well, so that should make the farmers happy.

I have a tree in the yard that’s about 3 years old. It was almost dead from lack of water. After a good heavy rain Thursday night, it had perked back up nicely! I had been kicking myself for not noticing it, but the rains came just in time!

The damage may be done for many of the farmers in these parts. Several counties in the area are now classified as in severe drought now.

It might seem easy to classify a drought - just look at rainfall and perhaps temperatures, right?

It’s not that simple though.

Do you classify drought conditions based on rainfall for the past 30 days, or 60. What abut 90-180 days? Even rainfall over 6 months ago can impact crops. Some crops need more rain than others and some crops can handle a dry spell better than others.

You see it’s not really that easy!

There are several different drought classification methods in place. Each with their attributes and deficiencies.

One of the older ones is the Palmer Index. There are actually several different versions of it, but the main index is a long term index. The Palmer index will not change much for our area, in spite of getting 1-2 inches of rain late last week.

Below is the Palmer Index for July 2006:

There is a newer more experimental index that has been developed by the USDA and NOAA. This index reacts a bit more quickly to drought busting rains.

The link at the bottom of the image will take you the drought monitor web site where you can read more about how the chart is made.

One final note. The temperature is vitally important in a drought. In the winter, the air and ground are cold, and there is little evaporation from the soil. Just the opposite in the warm season. Evaporation rates are very high and plants are green. The high rate of photosynthesis and transpiration also uses up the soil water quickly.

This means that an inch of rain in January, will keep the soil wet much longer than even 2-3 inches of rain in early August.

It looks like we will go back to a fairly dry pattern next week (But not as hot!). The warm weather, and green plants will suck that moisture out of the ground quickly, and the soil will be bone dry again in just a few days!

The news media seems to love these long range hurricane forecasts. Dr. William Gray started forecasting the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin over 20 years ago. NOAA in Washington has begun to make an annual prediction as well.

There is some good in these predictions. They get lots of attention, and hopefully get coastal residents thinking about what they would do if they were faced with an impending category 5, on their door step. That’s where the good ends in my opinion.

NOAA today and Dr. Gray last week revised down the number of storms expected this year. That did not surprise us in the weather office. JP, Spencer and I have all thought that it would be extremely unusual to have another record breaking year in the tropics. That said, we did, and still do expect an above average season. You will not see any forecasts like that from the WHNT weather center. Frankly, it is just not possible yet to make a prediction of how many storms will develop several months ahead of time.

A forecast of an above normal, or well above normal season, is not beyond current science, and most meteorologists I know will agree that an above normal year is still likely.

There are a bunch of factors that go into these forecasts. Some are obvious, like the sea surface temperature anomalies. If the water in the tropical Atlantic is well above normal then that would favor a more active season.

Another factor that is not so obvious, is the wind direction in the stratosphere above 75,000 feet. These winds tend to switch directions from West to East every few years. This is called the QBO or (get ready for it) the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. When the winds are strong from the East we tend to see considerably fewer tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf. This is likely because of the high wind shear in the Stratosphere. A Westerly QBO tends to bring an active hurricane season.

There are other factors as well, but suffice it to say- take these hurricane forecasts with a grain of salt. If you hear that we are expecting an active season- that is a forecast that will probably verify.

If you hear that we are going to have 9 hurricanes and 14 tropical storms, three of which will hit land-then do what I do-laugh.

Later,
Dan