Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

It has been awhile since I recommended some books to you faithful readers. (Readers from 71 countries have now visited my journal! Thank You!)

The fisrt book is related to a post about Dr. Richard Muller’s course at U. C.  Berkeley. “Physics For Future Presidents”. He has written a book that includes even more material than is available in the online lectures! (I have the link to his course in my previous post.)
Think Plutonium is the most toxic substance known, worried about a dirty bomb? Then your Physics needs updating. This is a complete course in modern Physics, with almost no math. (The Math is beautiful though, as Dr. Muller points out, in his online lectures).

Muller’s online course has been voted the most popular at Berkeley. This, by Non Science majors!

It would be great to meet Muller someday. He is a renowned Physicist. He knew Feynman too! 

You can get it from Amazon here:
PHYSICS FOR FUTURE PRESIDENTS 

The other book is a new one on climate that is really fascinating. It is also recommended by the Climate Scientists who write the Real Climate blog. That is high praise indeed.

Ice, Mud and Blood, by Chris Turney, is also available from Amazon HERE.

Have you wondered just how we know what the climate was like millions of years ago? This book explains it. I am rather familiar with the basic climate proxies, but I have learned a lot of new things from this book! Very readable and interesting.

I’m now on page 87, and my opinion of this book keeps climbing rapidly. If your tired of the junk online about climate change being a hoax or a liberal plot (please!, read a book folks!) This book is a real world look at Climate Science. 

Chris Turney, is a climate professor in the Uk, and a graduate of Royal Holloway, a very prestigious school. 

If you know a young person interested in Science, these books would make a great gift. If you like learning things the rest of the world doesn’t know, buy them for yourself!

Later,
Dan

I have asked this question to myself many times.

Any Meteorologist, who works as a forecaster, will tell you that people get very upset if you tell them that the damage to their home was not caused by a tornado.  I am not sure why this is the case, it would probably make a good PhD thesis for some Psychology student!

Straight line winds can, and most of the time are, responsible for most structural wind damage. I have talked with people who no longer have a roof, and they were genuinely disappointed that it was not a tornado that took it! ESPLAIN THAT ONE RICKY!

In many cases it can be difficult to tell. The damage at Belle Mina, in Alabama on Christmas Eve, is a good example! My first thought was that it was likely straight line winds. A good rule of thumb is this: if the only damage is a mobile home, then assume straight line winds. In this case, there was some decent evidence of an EF-1 tornado. That means a 3 second wind gust of 86-110 mph.

If you have wondered how these storm surveys are done, here is a link to a power point presentation on doing storm surveys. It is courtesy of the U.S. National Weather Service.

STORM SURVEYS

The slides were put together by NWS Meteorologist Ernest Ostuno.

Later,

Dan

If your reading this blog from anywhere  in the Northern Hemisphere, you know how crazy the weather has been in December. Here in the Southeast USA, we have had warm and dreary conditions, with nearly 11 inches of rain in Huntsville. This is not a record though. Back in 1990 we had over 18 inches!

The West, and North have had bitter cold, and snow for most of the month. Blizzards in Seattle, Detroit, and heavy lake affect snow in Michigan, and New York.

Here in the Tennessee Valley, we finally got just a dose of what has been the rule up North. Bitter cold arctic air has moved in, and as I type this on Sunday night the first day of Winter, it is -7C!

So what happens next you ask? Well first let me explain why it has been so warm here, and cold elsewhere.

The storm track locked into a pattern in early December. (See below). This kept us wet and mild, while most of the country had snow, and cold.

The pattern broke this weekend, and the cold made it into the East and South.

It will not last though. The long range guidance is all advertising a return to the storm track of the last two weeks, with cold and snowy weather in the North and West, and mild wet weather in the southeast.

The image below is the storm track forecasted by the WRF model, for Christmas Eve. The upper left panel is the storm track, and the bottom right is the forecast of precipitation for the 12 hour period during the day. I’m always happier with the jet stream to my south….I love SNOW!

Later,

Dan

The map below is courtesy Penn State Meteorology.

We live in what I call Gutenberg times. 

The single greatest invention in the thousand year period from the beginning of the common era in year 1 up through the year 1980 was the printing press. It revolutionized the entire world. The availibility of the  printing press changed every single aspect of society, and led directly to the Renaissance.

After the printing press, the way things were done, and the way people got information changed in less than two decades! It’s now happening again. The internet has changed the way people get their information, and communicate it. 

I will not bet that the New York Times (My former employer, who treated me very well by the way!) will still be publishing a newspaper in 5 years. If you made a bet back in 1992 that the NYT would no longer be publishing in 2012, would you have any takers??

I doubt it.

Somewhere, I have a clipping from the Huntsville Times back in 1994. In an article about the new internet fad, the writer said that it was just that, a fad which would soon pass. It immediately reminded me of what some newspapers said about radio in the early 20’s. That is why I saved it!

My Mom in Oklahoma has no computer, and still takes the newspaper. I know of nobody under 30 who still takes the paper. The digital divide is huge. The Detroit Free Press announced today that they will cut home delivery to 3 days a week starting next year!

This is a bit concerning. Why? Because, newspaper newsrooms have usually hired the best and most experienced reporters. The Washington Post broke Watergate. Look up New York Times V. Sullivan on Google. A free press is a mandatory requirement for a free society. ANY free society. Will Newspaper newsrooms still have enough money to pay for really good journalists, if they are published only online for free? No one knows yet.

Now, I have worked nearby a TV newsroom for most of my career, and while there is a big difference in how they cover news, compared to newspapers, they typically have not had someone who researches in depth stories and may not appear on air at all each day. (WHNT, my current employer DOES by the way, much to the chagrin of some local scam artists).

The changes we are living through are hitting TV stations hard, and the economic woes worldwide have been a double whammy. Still TV stations are taking up the slack in many places. I know a lot of TV folks who are nervous about the “new world order”. I am not. It’s going to be a brave new world, and people will still want good quality weather information.

I never got into Meteorology to get rich, and I suspect, it’s not going to accidently happen to me! I got into it because I love forecasting, and science. Those things will still be around in the new world.

One last unrelated (semi) thing. I see that Microsoft is asking people to not use their browser until they get an emergency security patch out.

My advice?

GET A MAC!

Steve Jobs Rules!

I feel better now, thank you.

Later

Dan

Some people know they are Geeks. I am one and I have learned to become comfortable with it! 

You may wonder, “Am I a geek??”.

In most countries of the world, being called a Geek is actually a compliment. Not necessarily so here in America.

(Something that may explain the low Math, and Science scores American students receive, compared to other countries. Just my opinion though.  I may very well be absolutely wrong, and I maintain an open mind on the question.)

Here is a test to know if you are a Geek.

Can you answer this question:

Who was Richard P Feynman?

If you know, then your already a Geek! (Welcome fellow human to geekdom!)

Don’t know, but want to? Your likely nearly there.

You could care less?

Then I must ask why your reading my Weather Journal?

 Some reason??

Nothing here about Angelina Joe Lee, or however you spell it. No links to reality shows, or the football polls. (Boomer Sooner anyhow!)

For those that want to know….

Richard P. Feynman was a Physics professor at the U. of California at Berkeley, who died in 1988.

He was not your average lecturer.

He won a Nobel Prize in Physics.

It is not an understatement to say that he was loved by his students. Many of his lectures on Physics were taped, and are still watched and listened to today. He had that uncanny ability to make sense of the insensible. So many students grew to love Physics, and the wonder of the Universe thanks to Feynman. He still inspires students today!

Even though he has been gone for 20 years, you can discover for yourself! Here is your chance. In 1979, after he won a Nobel Prize, he was invited to give the Douglas Robb Memorial lecture at the Univ. of Auckland. They taped it. You can watch the series of lectures online here:

http://www.vega.org.uk/video/subseries/8

I promise you, after just watching the first 75 minutes, you will be amazed at just how strange reality is. Einstein once made a famous statement that “God does not play dice with the universe”.

Nearly every Physicist on the planet will tell you that Einstein was wrong. God is one heck of a Bingo player! I wouldn’t want to be in a poker game with him!

If you watch the lecture and like it, then Congrats-You’re a Geek!

Later,
Dan