Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

Spring has busted out all over here in Northeast Alabama. Much prettier here in Spring than where I grew up in Oklahoma. My yard has a beautiful Cherry tree, and a host of golden Daffodils. So, wherever you are, on this small, spinning fragment of solar driftwood, (Orson Wells Oct. 30, 1938. CBS Radio-think Martians.) here’s hope that Spring reaches you soon! (This offer not valid for Aussies, Kiwis, and others south of the Tropic of Capricorn…)

Now, as the title promises…

A bunch of federal agencies, along with the National Sci. Foundation, and AAAS (A proud member writes this.) have produced an exc. primer on Climate Change. It will be helpful to students writing a report for Science class, and adults who want an easy to read, basic introduction, that answers their questions. Click on the pic to get it.

Yea, I know, AIG got 14 Billion, and all you get is a pdf pamphlet. Welcome to mera kuh!

I have mentioned it before in this journal, but I nominate two people for the equivalent of an Emmy in the internet world.

Dr. Alex Filippenko, and Dr. Richard Muller.
Both are professors at the University of California at Berkely.

Filippenko’s class lectures on Introduction to Astronomy, are available FREE online. Superb.

Muller’s “Physics for Future Presidents“, is also available for free. Every Lecture, for both courses, and no tests!

It matters not, if you have ever had a Science class in college! You will enjoy them, and learn why Science is so fun. Great project for a Parent, and kid to do together. PLEASE,  just watch one lecture. You will be hooked!

Thought: There really should be a Richard Feynman Day in this country.

Another publication out this week. State of the Birds. It too was put together, by a collection of private, and government agencies. The news is not good. The image below, is the link.

I’ve blown my book budget for March. If you haven’t, buy these for yourself, or for some geeky kid you know.

Divine Wind by Kerry Emanuel

The Liar by Stephen Fry

Thin Ice by Mark Bowen

One is a hilarious comedy(18+), one is the best book about Hurricanes yet written. (Science and Poetry! Dude!) The third is a compelling story, about one man’s quest to discover the secrets of past climates, locked in the ice of the worlds highest mountains. I’ll let you figure out which is which!

Final thought: Seen somewhere on the web, and cannot find it again. “Only a fool, considers worthless, the knowledge he doesn’t have” If you know who said this, let me know please!

Later,

Dan

I had an email from a viewer last week, who was upset that he canceled his golf game three days in a row because I forecasted rain. He pointed out that it was Thursday, and the rain had finally started.

My first thought was that he had gotten my forecast mixed up with someone else’s. (It happens frequently. I’ve been blamed for missing a snow forecast, when I was spot on!)

Turns out, I had forecasted a 25% chance of rain, at the most, early in the week. (I had indeed forecasted a 95% chance of rain for Thursday) This was apparently enough for this gentleman to call off his Monday-Tuesday golf games. Whose fault is it??

Some of the blame, and perhaps most should go to me.

I would never cancel an outdoor activity on a 25% chance of rain. Nor should you. The problem here, is that everyone interprets a weathercast in their own way. Some responsibility is on the viewer to have a modicum of intelligence, but it’s my responsibility to produce a weathercast that is understandable, to the vast majority of viewers.

Easier said, than done.

The public has a very poor understanding of what a chance of rain means. When I forecast, first, I decide if we will see precipitation, and then what percentage of the viewing area will likely get wet. If it’s 50%, then that’s the rain chance.

The NWS does it a little differently. My friend, and exc. forecaster James Paul Dice, (Chief Meteorologist for WBRC in Birmingham) has written in detail about how they do it. The difference is usually minor between these two methods.

As the forecast period increases, accuracy decreases. A forecast beyond 7 days, has little accuracy, and your best bet is to look at the averages. There is some skill in temperature, (Above normal, below or average.) out to two weeks. You would be surprised how often I get requests for a forecast, that is 15 or more days into the future.

On my forecast pages, I have a line at the bottom that says “Forecast confidence _______” with high, low etc. in it. There is a very good reason for that.  It’s really the main reason I am writing this post. The next sentence is the most important one in this post!

In Science, any measurement, or prediction, is WORTHLESS, if it’s not accompanied, by a measurement of the uncertainty in it!

This is true for weather forecasts, and it’s true for Climate Science and all of Science.  The IPCC projects a rise of 4.0C by 2100 (business as usual scenario) with a range of 2.4 to 6.4C. The scientific confidence in that range is 66%. (Based on some complex statistical analysis, not just a guess that it’s 66%!

Gray here denotes uncertainty.

So, to be really correct when I put a forecast on TV, it should actually something like this:

Sunny and warm Tomorrow

High 72 +- 3 F

Wind: SE 6-14 mph gusts to 20 +- 5 mph.

Also, if it’s in a Scientific journal, it would be in degrees Celsius or Kelvin. Not Fahrenheit.

IF, I did this on air, I’m not sure who would want to string me up first, the viewers or station management! Both would likely have cause!

That forecast confidence line is what I do instead. Not every forecast has the same degree of uncertainty. This is important information for the viewer. It also reminds them that there is a bit of uncertainty in any scientific prediction.

Most of the time, in Science papers, the range of uncertainty given is the 95% confidence level. In other words, the high will be between 20-24C with 95% confidence. By the way, a 24 hour forecast is usually within 4 degrees Fahrenheit, much of the time.

You may think this is all rather kooky, but you do it too. Ever measured a room for carpet? Say you came up with 14.4 square yard needed. did you order 14.4 or 17 yards, just in case you were a bit off.

Just so you know, a forecast 5 days out of 70 degrees is a good forecast in my book, if the high is between 65-75. If you are demanding more than this, you are likely to be disappointed. A 40% chance of rain means you are likely going to stay dry. Don’t cancel the golf game!

Hundreds of the world’s top Climate Scientists have been meeting in Copenhagen. This is the largest meeting, since the release of the 4th assessment report of the IPCC in 2007. I have written here several times about research, indicating that the situation was worse than thought, just two years ago.

The rate of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing more rapidly than expected in the worst case scenario. Sea Level is rising more rapidly than expected, and the Arctic ice is diminishing much more rapidly than expected. The IPCC scientists made clear in 2007 that sea level rise was a difficult prediction, and that they might be underestimating it. You could say that. The latest Science is indicating a real possibility, of over 1 meter in rise by 2100. The 2007 report was about half that!

The same week that this conference is held, the Gallup organization released a poll that shows the number of Americans who think the threat from Climate Change is being exaggerated, has increased!

This is the great disconnect, and seems to be a hot topic of conversation in much of the Science world. The public just doesn’t seem to get it. Is this the fault of the Scientists? The news media? Is it the fault of our education system.

The economic catastrophe could be to blame. People are too busy keeping food on the table, and get most of their science from cable news. That’s a BIG mistake by the way, although AM Radio is no doubt worse.

A Scientist I know, has suggested that the answer is much less complex. The cold Winter in the East. This may very well be the answer!

Several times over the last couple of months, I’ve heard, on cable news programs, something along the line of ” a climate protest was held in a blizzard today…” and “Al Gore testified to congress during a snow storm…” in stories on Climate Change.

Even people who should know better , apparently don’t. This week, a Tampa Meteorologist proclaimed, during his weathercast, that Climate Change had stopped in 1998, and used the cold Winter in the East as one of the reasons. (If only he had read my last post! See  ”No, Global Warming didn’t Stop in 1998″ below!)

Just so you know, the planetary temp. is not measured in your back yard.

It’s measured in everyone’s back yard! (Well, maybe not that guy who lives two blocks over, the dogs would tear someone to pieces)

The map below shows the World temps. in January. The bigger the red dot, the warmer it was. Yes, it was cold in the Northeast. However, The rest of the planet had the 7th hottest January on record!! I wonder how many people, under the blue dots, got called by Gallup??

January 2009 Temperatures

The Copenhagen report will be out in a few months, but below are a few of the “Key Messages” from the Scientists.

Key Message 1: Climatic Trends

Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised. (my highlights) For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. These parameters include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. (My accent here)

Key Message 2: Social disruption

The research community is providing much more information to support discussions on ?dangerous climate change?. Recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2oC will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.

Key Message 3: Long-Term Strategy

Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid ?dangerous climate change? regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and mitigation.

The rest are on the conference website.

Some of the political sites that masquerade as Science have touted that Global Warming stopped in 1998. They even give you charts to prove it. Every time I log into my Gmail I see adds for some book that says a NASA Scientists has exposed the fraud of Global Warming.

Time for a few reality checks.

If a real NASA scientist discovered global warming is wrong, they would publish it in a peer reviewed journal. Not on a Google advert!  Someone is just trying to get your money.  People will pay for anything that confirms their sense of reality.

Dr. Ricky Rood, a Meteorology professor at the University of Michigan, and Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, has written a very interesting post on the AMS Climate Change Policy blog, about why some people do not want to accept the Science of Climate Change.

We’ve had a real warm spell here in North Alabama, however,  it’s coming to an end tonight. The rest of the week will see much cooler weather. Now, what would you think of me if I went on TV tonight, and announced that Spring had ended. Winter was back, and it had all been a hoax. Those blooming pear trees all over town were just a natural cycle, but things are going back to the way they were in February.

You would think I am nuts right?? (Well my daughter already thinks I am, but that’s another story)

Well, the claim that Global Warming stopped in 1998, is exactly the same.

The problem with measuring climate change, is that it’s mixed with this mysterious force that causes our temperature to change a little each year.

It’s called Weather.

I try to forecast it. Some days I have more success than others!

Ocean currents, like El Nino, and La Nina, affect the global temperature. The the sun does too. The amount from the Sun is pretty small. About 0.2 watts per square meter from the top of the 11 year sunspot cycle to the bottom. This will be the subject of my next post.

To see the climate signal through the weather you have to filter out the year to year weather to see the change in Climate!

Climate scientists know this.

Global Temps Since 1880 from NASA GISS

The average Joe who gets confused about the difference between a mean, and a standard deviation does not.

This simple fact allows certain people (I have another name for them), to  make a lot of money by writing books that say Global Warming stopped in 1998.

The Scientists who write the Real Climate blog have done an excellent job of explaining this, and they produced an even more interesting graph. (Reproduced from Real Climate- That post is here.)

They show what happens if you just compare temperatures at an 8 year interval? You can claim Global Warming has ended many times. Just pick your year, write the book, and enjoy the money!!

( IF, you want to get climate science from a real Climate Scientist, Real Climate is the place place to visit. I write this blog for students and non scientists, Real Climate is a bit more high brow..just to say, you’ve been warned!)

From Real Climate: Global Temps from NASA GISS

So here is the truth:

2007 Was the second warmest year in the instrument record and is only surpassed by 1998.

The years since 2000 are the hottest on record by far. 2008 the 10th hottest on record.

Want to bet we have a new record high year in the next decade?

Some NASA Scientists have said they would make that bet. I’d put money on their side myself.

So now you understand why this claim is so silly. How does it feel to be smarter than George Will!

I wrote last month about my trip to Space Camp, and meeting two Apollo Astronauts. Tonight the TV version of my weekend airs on WHNT. The talent of the people I work with continually amazes me. The piece on TV was photographed, taped, edited, and written by one David Wood. My sincere thanks to him for making the weekend at Space Camp come alive.

See Weekend To Remember.