Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

I have yet to write about Ocean Acidification in this journal. It’s kind of the “forgotten Great Uncle” of Climate Change. Well, it used to be. It’s getting a lot more attention, from the mainstream media, (I use that term loosely, and I am a part of it!) and Scientists themselves. A major new study published today, will likely get some major news coverage.

So, what is ocean acidification??

Ocean acidification is the change of the ocean pH, due to increased Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. The oceans actually absorb about one third of the CO2 we pump into the air every year. (About 30 billion tons). This is far more than all the volcanoes on Earth put out. (Despite what you might read online- those claims are silly, and anyone with a semblance of  intelligence knows it.)

The Oceans have actually helped keep the Earth cooler than it would have been by now. That absorption of CO2 is now slowing according to some new research. Not good news.

What does this CO2 do to the ocean  you may ask.

Oceans soak up a lot of CO2

Plenty.

Once absorbed, it turns into Carbonic Acid that makes the Ocean more acidic. The pH of the Ocean in the 1700′s was 8.2. It’s now down to 8.1. pH is a logarithmic scale so that’s a big drop.

If you have ever picked up shells by the seashore, then you likely know that those shells are the remains of ocean creatures. The shells are made of Calcium Carbonate. Something that will dissolve in acid. Ocean chemistry is VERY complicated, so I will spare you the details. (my knowledge of them is shaky at best)

So the basics are this. More CO2, means the pH of the ocean drops more. At some point, this may begin to have an effect on the very bottom of the food chain.

If these tiny Plankton cannot make shells, what will happen to them. Since they are the bottom of the food chain, what happens to everything up the chain. All the way to us??

You might think that trees produce the Oxygen you breathe, but most of it (50-90%) comes from tiny planktonic creatures in the oceans. These creatures actually are what put oxygen into our atmosphere in the first place.

The reason you should worry about these creatures is this: We humans are stupid. We do not know which species we allow to die, are the really important ones. Some minor species in the oceans or in a tropical rain forest, may be the key to the entire Earth ecosystem that supports us. If we kill them off, we kill ourselves off. Joseph Romm put this very well on his Climate Progress blog. I highly recommend it.

Along comes a new study, published today in Nature Geoscience. Dr. Howard Wilson, and Dr. Andrew Moy have compared the shells of tiny foraminifera, from the present, with those of the past. They find that the shells of these plankton have decreased a stunning 35%, since the industrial revolution began. This may well be the most robust study yet, that shows the oceans creatures are being affected by Climate Change. Nature Geoscience is an EXPENSIVE subscription, but a great summary for free is available from Scientific American online.

Some more bad news from the Scientists “Down Under”, Dr. Ben McNeil, and others now say that a level of 450 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere may very well be the tipping point for marine life. Levels above this point will severely affect marine life. This study was published in the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Plankton Rule the Oceans- Photo Credit: Prof. Gordon T. Taylor, Stony Brook University, USA

We will reach that level in about 20 years. Much of this research came from Plankton in the Tasmanian sea.

Want to learn more? The Royal Society published an exhaustive report on acidification in 2005. The Royal Society is the oldest Scientific body in the world. Past presidents of the RS included people like the Lord Kelvin, and Sir Isaac Newton.

Those tiny plankton, may turn out to be the real Tasmanian Devils.

Some more Climate Change news coming in a day or two….

As someone who does a TV weathercast each day,  I’m keenly aware, that I’m the only person with a Science background that most people see, on a daily basis.

This is true of just about everyone who does weather on TV. This begs the question that is the title of this post. Is your local weather person a Meteorologist?

It depends, I guess, on what your definition of a Meteorologist is.

TV stations tend to call anyone doing the weather on air a Meteorologist, even though many have little formal training in Science.

The American Meteorological Society will not give someone a seal now, unless they have ,the basic equivalent of an undergrad. degree in Meteorology. That means 2 years of Math, including at least 3 semesters of Calculus. In addition, a year of Calculus based Physics, and courses in Atmospheric Dynamics and Thermodynamics.

There are actually two types of certification by the AMS. The old “AMS Seal of Approval”, and the new CBM seal. ( Certified Broadcast Meteorologist).

The old AMS seal had much looser requirements, that have slowly been tightened over the years. The new CBM seal is held by some without an undergrad. degree in Atmospheric Science, because they were allowed to upgrade their AMS seal. In a few years, as old seal holders retire, the vast majority of CBM seal holders will have degrees.

CBM seal holders must also pass a rather rigorous test, and meet continuing education requirements. Most importantly, the must demonstrate that they can convey information well to a broad audience. I have known some very bright Meteorologists, who had the education, but were lousy communicators. I also know a few very good presenters, who have a limited Science background, but do an excellent on air weathercast!

In general, the CBM seal is a good indicator of whether or not your local weather man or woman is really a Meteorologist, with the exceptions noted above.

Now, the second question. Does he/she understand Climate Science??

First of all, climate is much different than weather. I would not bet my house on the high temperature tomorrow (say, within 7 degrees). I WILL bet my house on the average high for the month of June, averaged over the next 4 years. Am I making sense?

Climate Physics is very specialized, and most undergrads have not had much more than an introduction to the topic. If your local weather person has a Science background, then they likely have the Math, and Science knowledge to bring themselves up to speed on the latest research. That’s exactly what I did. I won’t lie. It was tough. Graduate level statistics is required to understand many of the published papers, and for me it’s a bear! A weather person with limited science background, will find it very hard.

Now lets add in Climate Change.

Some recent surveys show that many TV weather folks have serious disagreements with the AMS position on climate change. The position of the AMS is about the same as the ones adopted by virtually EVERY major scientific organization in the world. That being, that this is a very serious problem, that must be solved soon.

Some more famous weathercasters have publicly called climate change a hoax. Weather Channel founder John Coleman is one example. (Note: The Weather Channel has a far different position). Certainly this confuses the public.

What are the reasons for this split between some on air weather people, and the AMS in general? My personal opinion is that it’s related to what I have previously discussed.

1.Weather and Climate, are two different branches of Atmospheric Science.

2. The widely varying education level of on air weather people.

At an AMS meeting last June, a survey of seal holders indicated, that less than half, had read any substantial amount of the IPCC report. Yet, many of these people are commenting on climate change. Many of the comments, bare little resemblance to what is published in peer reviewed journals.  Some, have even called it a hoax.

Are they giving a scientific opinion, or a political one?

Bob Ryan, the longtime Meteorologist for WRC TV in Washington, is the only broadcaster to serve as President of the American Meteorological Society. (Very few Meteorologists work in TV. Most in academia, or for NOAA). In August 2007 he wrote a guest editorial, in the Bulletin of the AMS, raising this issue. It’s well worth reading. (The link takes you to the website of the AMS Committee on Station Science. I’m  a member of this committee.)

Education is the key to this problem, and the AMS is taking several steps to do just that. I’m proud to have a small part in it.

These thoughts are my own of course, and do not necessarily represent those of the AMS.

Later this year, thousands of students around the world will take the PISA test. The Program for International Student Assessment test measures Math, and Science skills.

Let’s hope the results of American students are an improvement over the last test in 2006. I have mentioned before in this space, just how serious the situation is.

Take a look at the results from the 2006 test.

The table is from Wikipedia. You will notice that the USA is not listed.

My Wife and I, were in a large hot tub at a Canadian ski resort 3 years ago.  Some students got in, and we talked with them for a good half hour.  We both remarked afterward, that the vocabulary, used by these Canadian high school students, was the equivalent of American students, who have at least two or three years of college behind them.

Notice where Canada ranks.

Maybe we need to find out what Canada is doing right.

Update on Arctic Ice tomorrow…

Later,
Dan

Two interesting Climate tidbits to leave for you today.

The first,  is a presentation by NASA top Climate Scientist James Hansen. He spoke at the December meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. This meeting of thousands of Earth science researchers, is one of the biggest, and best science conferences there is.

Hansen gave a talk in which he says that he thinks we have already passed a level of Carbon Dioxide that will bring an end to the Summer Arctic sea ice. The only question is whether it will disappear in 20 years or 90. The presentation runs about an hour and is well worth watching. He brings up several subjects that will be the subject of posts here in the coming days.

HANSEN TALK TO AGU

The other Climate news is from NOAA. The numbers for January are in, and for the planet, the January temperature was the 7th warmest on record. The instrument record goes back to 1880 in this case. So much for Climate change stopped in 1998.

Later,

Dan