Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

You probably have never heard of Thomas Midgley, but believe me he has impacted your life.

Thomas Midgley who invented useful, but environmentally disastrous, chemicals.

He was a graduate of Cornell University and worked as an industrial chemist for his entire career. His first big invention was to make an additive for gasoline that almost completely eliminated knocking in car engines. The additive was made of tetra ethyl lead. If you are my age, or older, you can remember pulling into a service station and being asked by the attendant “Do you want regular or ethyl?” Now you know where that comes from.

The Ethyl corporation was formed to make millions of dollars of of this product and they did. Unfortunately, they ran into a small problem. Lead is a dangerous neurotoxin. Their workers suffered all kinds of health affects, up to and including death. This was only a minor inconvenience however, as there was lots of money to be made.

Bill Bryson, in his book “A Short History of Nearly Everything” has a fascinating chapter devoted to Midgley and the Ethyl Corporation. Perhaps most interesting is how they conspired, very successfully, to ruin the career of the scientist who figured out that lead produced by the Ethyl corporation was in everything by the 1950’s. It would not be banned in gasoline until the 1970’s! Supposedly the company denied that lead is dangerous to humans into the 1970’s. They may still deny it!

If you were born in the 1900’s, you have over 600 times the lead concentration in your body, than someone who died before World War One!

The Ethyl corporation still exists, and they still make the product.  The headquarters are in Richmond Va. They just sell it to other countries, and it’ s still put in some fuel used in the USA. I did a little research on Wikipedia and found out that the company is now a subsidiary?? of  NewMarket corp.  Eythyl Corp. still exists. You can see their web site here. Nothing about Thomas Midgley, or the banning of lead gasoline on the site, that I can see.

Midgley didn’t stop there. Next he came up with a way to get rid of the dangerous chemicals used in early air conditioning systems. So he invented a product called dichlorodifluoromethane. Yea, it’s hard to pronounce, so everyone just called it CFC. Yup, Midgley invented CFC’s! He had no idea of course that they would not only work well as a refrigerant, but they were also incredibly effective at destroying Ozone. We are lucky though.

The Ozone Hole Still Exists, but the Montreal Protocol has banned most CFC's. It should begin to close by 2050. Action on CFC's is a great example of nations working together to save the environment!

If Midgley had used Bromine instead of Chlorine, the resulting product would have destroyed the Ozone layer very rapidly, and the world would have been in even deeper trouble than it is now. Perhaps lifeless!

There is more to Midgley’s story. He contracted Polio, and designed a contraption to get him out of bed. It had the same hidden dangers of the rest of his inventions. He got caught in it and was strangled. As the late Paul Harvey would have said,

“and now you know….. The Rest of The Story!”

Later,
Dan

Sources: A SHORT HISTORY OF NEARLY EVERYTHING- Bill Bryson (Perhaps the best popular Science book ever written)
Doctor Karl- ABC Australia (Heard on BBC Radio 5 Live Thursday mornings)

Wikipedia and I grabbed the Midgley pic from the Nerdy Science Blog-which has a great post about Midgley as well.

Ozone hole pic from NASA and Ozone hole info from various Climate books I have. Email if your interested in these.

It amazes me that in the 21st century that people are still clamoring for more tornado sirens in their communities. These sirens are outrageously expensive, and perhaps the least effective way to warn people of severe weather. Yet, after every severe weather event, I will get several emails from folks complaining that they have no siren in their neighborhood.

No Weather Siren? No problem.

Just to be clear, the reasons these sirens are and should be a thing of the past:

1. They are not designed to be heard indoors

2. They are frightfully expensive.

3. They give no immediate information to citizens.

I personally feel that not  another single penny of tax money should ever be spent on them.

So what to do instead?

Several options.

The Midland WR 100 or WR 300, are good NOAA Radios

Most importantly, get a NOAA weather radio. If you are in Canada, they have a weather radio system there as well. Other countries do not, but you should pester your MP to develop a system. There is a major need in the UK for one. I’m surprised that “Disgusted in Tunbridge Wells” has not made a big deal about this! (That’s a joke only the UK folks will get, but trust me, it was a good one! )

The World Meteorological Organization is working with HAM radio operators in Africa to gather and report weather information. Ham radio operators around the world have long been actively involved in storm spotting and weather data relay efforts. I am a HAM lic. holder myself (KC4ZUX). These people do a wonderful service, their spotter reports are invaluable during severe weather.

For those that have these radios, do not set it for any other county than your own. The way the system works, it may not even work if you do this. The U.S. Federal Government is working toward being able to warn only parts of counties with the NOAA radios, but for some reason (Likely money) it’s not up and running yet. Still, you should have one.

If you live in a mobile home, your risk of being injured by severe weather is many, many times greater and a NOAA radio is an absolute must.

Another option I really think is great is the new automated calling systems. Dekalb County Alabama was struck by tornadoes this year and last. It’s a fairly rural county and sirens are not an option. They  just purchased a system that will allow them to call resident in the path of severe storms.

WAY TO GO DEKALB EMA!

Hopefully, other counties and cities will follow their lead. I know of several of these systems that are already operating. With everyone carrying a mobile phone now, this is real 21st century technology.

Vortex 2 is underway- Click for more info.

All of this will be of little use, if forecasters like me cannot see dangerous weather developing. Believe me, there is a ton of research underway to improve warnings. This Spring, NOAA and several universities are working together to get high resolution data of severe storms. This experiment is called VORTEX 2. It’s the largest and most ambitious effort ever undertaken to better understand how tornadoes form.

The average lead time, for a tornado warning, is about 13 minutes in the USA. Higher if you exclude tornadoes in hurricanes. There was an excellent paper, in the March issue, of the AMS Journal Weather and Forecasting on Tornado warnings that were too late. These negative lead time warnings still happen, but they are rare. Forecasters are looking at how and why these tornadoes were missed, so there will be fewer of them.

Interestingly, these late warnings happen very often with the first tornado of the day, and in months when tornadoes are not common. They also are more likely in areas of the country that see few twisters. As we learn more, and get higher resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWP), the lead time for tornadoes should increase.  Just as importantly, the false alarms will decrease.

Keep safe,

Dan

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has written a blockbuster. It seems that the Global Climate Coalition, which waged an expensive PR campaign to raise doubt about the Science of Climate Change, decided to ignore their own in-house Scientists. Well, they had to you see. The Scientists told them that the evidence was overwhelming. So who was the Global Climate Coalition?? Read Revkin.

The Scientist quoted in the Revkin piece, Dr. Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore Labs. was mentioned in my previous post ( I met him last weekend at a Climate Seminar in Chicago). If you have not seen the interview I linked, it’s well worth your time. My next post will be about Dr. Santer’s work, which is VERY fascinating.

Is America's Science Reputation Fading??

I rarely write here about what we should do to fix the mess we have gotten ourselves into. My opinion on policy is no better than anyone elses, and likely much poorer. Explaining the Science, and trying to put it into context is the purpose of this journal.  It’s what I truly enjoy doing. So, if there is misinformation on Science, I will tackle it, but when it comes to policy, I will give pointers to interesting and though provoking articles but generally stick to what I know! An educated public will usually make the right decision.

The problem here, is that the USA is not even in the top 20 countries world wide in Science and Math. Many U.S. graduate schools students are from other countries. They will return there when finished. Make no mistake about it, this is a catastrophe in the making. What’s causing it? Could it be we have too much emphasis on Sport, and not enough on academics? Who gets their name in the paper more often? The kid who gets straight A’s or the kid who scored three touch downs in the last football match?

I was just asked to be on the board of our local Science Museum, and I jumped at it. Science education starts with the young. Somehow some way we are going to get funding for NOAA’s Science on a Sphere. It’s fabulous!

Science on a Sphere- An amazing educational tool. Developed by NOAA. Click the globe.

That said, there is another good article in the NYT about how policy changes could make a difference in short order. Give it a read. All I will say about this is that there is no such thing as “Clean Coal”. Green Coal doesn’t exist either. When you hear stories about carbon capture, you should realize that this technology is mostly untried, and as of now, it makes coal as expensive as wind and solar, while still putting a considerable amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

It’s hard to find any energy experts that will tell you that coal has much of a future as an acceptable fuel. Natural gas is a fossil fuel as well, but it is not nearly as bad as coal. When it comes to Climate Change, coal is as black as it gets. Could there be a way to make it acceptable? Possibly. Doesn’t look good though. NASA Climate Scientist James Hanson put it very succinctly when he said the best place for Coal, is in the ground.

If you are a mining executive or a power utility, you likely do not care for that opinion. I’m reminded of Upton Sinclair’s famous quote: “It’s very hard to convince someone of anything, if their paycheck depends on it not being true”. I may have not gotten it exact, but that’s the gist of it.

So repeat after me:
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CLEAN COAL.

No matter what slick piece of persuasion you see on TV.

Could this be the most disastrous PR Spot of all time? It get's my vote!

A warm sunny weekend on tap here in the Southeast corner of the United States. Here’s hoping for sunshine where you are! (The BBC says the hope of sun is thin for those of you on the South Coast of England…sorry mates!)

You can always stay inside and sing Frosty the Coal Man.

Cheers,
Dan

Buckingham Fountain- Grant Park by Dan

Chicago has to be my favorite U.S. city. It has a culture all it’s own, and no place in America has more interesting architecture. On a windy, and warm Sunday evening in October 1871, a raging fire consumed Chicago. Local lore blames the conflagration on a cow owned by  a Mrs. O’Leary. Unlikely, but it did start in a shed nearby.

So what occupies the site now?

The Chicago Fire Department’s training academy. I kid ya not!

Chicago from the Field Museum by Dan

When I was invited to make a presentation at a Climate seminar I jumped at the chance. I’ve written before about the disconnect between some Weather-casters, and  Climate Scientists.

This disconnect is (IMHO) caused by a number of factors. Among them, is the wide range of education levels in TV weather. Perhaps more importantly, day to day forecasters know how difficult it is to predict weather a few days in advance. I ‘m sure this leads to doubts about the predictions of Climate for decades to come.

One way to think about it (I heard this in Chicago) is to consider a pot of boiling water. The bubbles are the weather. The water level is the climate.

I was cynical myself for a few years, but once I read the Science, and understood the difference between Weather and Climate, my cynicism disappeared. That’s why I was happy to talk with the invited TV folks. My presentation was about how they could bring themselves up to speed, on Climate Science. Synoptic forecasting (What I do everyday), is much different than climate Science. Meteorology is a VERY broad field.

Most of those who read up on it, will realize we have a serious problem. The Science is truly overwhelming. The TV Weather folks had some excellent and thought provoking  questions, and I could tell that they had thought a lot about the subject. This is good news. There are some very bright people working in front of the camera now.

The Art Institute has the best collection of Impressionists this side of the National Gallery in London.

I’m a member of the AMS Committee On Station Science. The average person sees just one person of science a day.

Just one.

Most of the time, it’s the guy/girl doing weather on TV. Most of my friends who do what I do, take this responsibility as seriously as I do.

The best thing about the trip, was spending the day with some VERY smart people. Dr. Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Labs. and Don Wuebbles of the Univ. of Illinois were both Lead Authors of the IPCC reports. There presentations were fascinating to say the least.  (Worrying as well)

Joe Witte, and Bob Ryan of NBC were there as well. Bob Ryan is past President of the American Meteorological Society. The only person from the TV Meteorology community, to have headed the AMS.

Tom Skilling, the beloved forecaster on WGN in Chicago was also there. Meteorologists love Tom, because he shows all the charts, and gets away with it! (The TV consultants must turn green when he is on!) The viewers know when they are being given hype or good solid Science, and Skilling gives them Science. Ask any Meteorologist who their favorite TV weather person is, and 9 times out of 10, the answer will be Tom Skilling. That should tell you something!

Paul Gross, the Chairman of the AMS Station Science Committee attended. Paul is Exec. Producer of weather for WDIV TV in Detroit. He interviewed Ben Santer after the conference, and posted the video online! It’s WELL WORTH WATCHING. You will need to click on the video that says “Global Warming: The truth behind it”.

Later,

Dan

There have been 16 deaths from tornadoes in the USA this year. 9 of them in mobile homes. 2 more outdoors. One in a vehicle, and 4 in homes and buildings. Think about that for a second. Mobile homes make up only a small portion of the housing in this country, but in most years, at least half of the tornado deaths are in them.

An EF2 tornado will destroy a mobile home park, but someone in a wooden, or brick home, will likely not even be injured. EF2 tornadoes are a lot more common than the big killer EF4, or EF5 twisters. Those are actually very rare.

I’ve been involved for awhile in supporting legislation that would require mobile home manufacturers to include a NOAA weather radio in all mobile homes. This legislation has little chance of passing. Mobile home manufacturers do not want buyers to be reminded that they are getting a home that is tornado bait.

Image from NWS Huntsville Office

Still, if everyone who lived in a mobile home, were to go to a safer structure when a Tornado Watch was issued, the death toll would be cut in half! We forecasters are getting pretty good. Tornadoes rarely happen outside of a Severe Thunderstorm, or Tornado Watch now.

Two people died Sunday night in North Alabama. I was on my way back from a Climate Seminar in Chicago, but Meteorologist Spencer Denton interrupted programming, and tracked the storms. He repeated, several times, our usual warning to those who live in mobile homes, to go to a safer place. What did he get for his trouble?

Over two dozen emails, complaining about missing the Amazing Race on CBS.

If your life is so boring that missing a TV show requires an email, with all caps and a bunch of exclamation points, then you have my sympathy, but not my understanding. Those emails are always outnumbered by those thanking us for breaking in, and warning them anyhow.

Classic "Comma Head" hook Echo on Nexrad Radar Sunday Evening. This storm killed one person.

My favorite complaints, are the ones that warn us they are writing the FCC. Do they they not know, that as holders of a public broadcast license, we are required to serve the community. I can assure you that running the Amazing Race instead of a Tornado Warning is not what the the FCC considers as serving the public. So good luck getting a response to that complaint!

I suspect, the FCC is as thick skinned about this type of email, as I am.

Mobile homes are a good option for many people who cannot afford a typical frame home. Just one thing to remember though, a few hours a year, you need to get to a safer place, until the storms pass.

Mobile Home Destroyed by EF2 Tornado Friday 10 April 2009- Viewer Pic.

The NWS in Huntsville has finished a preliminary storm survey. all of the Sunday night tornadoes were EF0 and EF1. The only deaths, and injuries, were in mobile homes.

One forecast that could have been much better, was the Sunday before last. The Gravity Wave/Wake Low event was not forecasted. It now looks as if this was primarily a wake low, that formed on the back side of a complex of non severe thunderstorms. They are getting more attention, and study now.  Meteorologists like myself, along with others at the NWS, and university researchers, are  working on learning more about them. Hopefully next time, we can give you some warning that one may occur.

My previous post has a lot of info on this.

More on the Climate Seminar in Chicago soon. It was fascinating.

Later,
Dan