Judith has a paper in press at Geophysical Res. Letters now. We presented at the AMS Climate Seminar in June in Portland, so I finally got to meet her)

I have not read it yet, but it looks like another fascinating bit of research. You can see a presentation she did on solar influence on the AMS Env. Science Seminar web site.

No serious scientist gives ANY credence to these “It’s the sun” claims anymore- it’s just propaganda put out by those with a political viewpoint to promote.

When I heard Dr Roy Spencer of UAH on the Radio a few years ago making the claim that the Earth is getting cooler I knew that couldn’t be right. Then I found out he was not measuring surface tempeartures. It seemed to me that the surface tempeartures are all that matters. That’s where we live. When the surface warms, that’s when all the bad things happen.

Are these troposphere and stratosphere measurement really necessary? If someone is trying to discredit AGW then all they have is a claim of more heat from the sun. But all that excess incoming radiation would be very easily detected would it not? I mean it would be a LOT of excess short wave radiation right?

Dan:
We are in our 12th year of this heat splat and 2009 will easily be in the top 10 for global land & ocean surface temperatures. So it seems that suddend heat spikes (like the one in 1998 that never went away) is how global warming is going to play out. Can you take a guess as to when the next heat spike will be?

http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer-and-Braswell-08.pdf

Note from Dan:
From now on published comments need to have first and last name.

Anytime I write on climate change, I get comments like this. More popular blogs get tons of these. There are about a dozen or so of these people who spend heir time putting out this kind of junk science. It’s really as David Archer put it “Politics dressed up to look like science”.

Most writers allow these posts in the interest of a free and open discussion. I have decided to use more editorial control of these comments. If your aim is to spread this kind of disinformation I will not be publishing it.

On the other hand, all comments and questions are welcomed.

I will try and use the digital eraser rarely, but if you are a well known poster of junk science on Real Climate and other sites, and are repeating the same old junk, then don’t waste your time here. Instead, I suggest taking a physics course at your local college. Try reading the IPCC report, they answer most of these silly arguments.

I do realize that many people hear these kind of things from friends, and even in mainline newspapers (Usually on the op ed pages), and are confused. I will try and spot these and at least reply privately with info on where they can get real science.

Not sure where you are getting the 4-7 degrees. Confusing Celsius and Fahrenheit?? The IPCC 4th asses. projects 1.7-4.4C SURFACE warming for the A1B scenario.

Sea level rise is currently 3mm per year and rising at a rate well exceeding IPCC projections and Arctic ice levels continue to drop at a rate exceeding the IPCC projections. See here: http://twitpic.com/93v4a

Even the models run from the 70’s have done an excellent job of forecasting the climate and if anything have underestimated the rise in temps. I can cite several peer reviewed papers that show it if you are interested.

Excuse me, but weren’t these the same models that predicted catastrophe, and still show warming trends too high (even with the development of newer ‘better’ models)? The abstract says 0.092 K/decade, give me a break! That’s less than 1 degree C over the next 100 years, hardly measurable. What happened to the 4 to 7 or even 10 degrees over the next 100 years.