Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

A few weeks back there was a riveting summary in NATURE, of the science surrounding the Ozone hole. Quirin Schiermeier tells the story of how we averted an environmental catastrophe in the absolute nick of time.  It’s also a great example of how looking at unexpected observations in a logical way, can lead to a better knowledge of how the planet works.

First some background.

While most people have heard of the ozone hole, they get confused about whether it’s good or bad. They hear about high ozone levels in the daily air quality report , and then hear there is a hole in the ozone over the South Pole!

It’s easy to explain. Ozone near the ground is bad. It’s formed due to a chemical reaction between sunlight and the exhausts from internal combustion engines.

The Ozone layer would have been nearly gone by the 2060, if rapid and coordinated action had not been taken by the nations of the World. Image from NATURE Aug 13, 2009. The Nature piece is highly recommended!

Ozone in the stratosphere is good. It blocks most of the dangerous UV rays produced by the sun, from reaching living organisms near the Earth’s surface. What little does get through, is responsible for that bad sunburn you got at the beach last Summer.

The first the world heard of the ozone  problem was in 1985. It was a paper published in NATURE. Researchers had discovered that a very widely used class of chemicals called Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) were destroying Ozone in the frigid stratosphere above Antarctica. The hole had already been detected by instruments, but was dismissed as bad data. Scientists monitoring the Ozone layer in Antarctica originally thought the drop on Ozone in the Austral spring was an instrument error.

How wrong they were.

If the discovery had been made 20 years later, it would have likely been too late to avoid a massive increase in skin cancers and perhaps a catastrophic damage to the atmosphere that protects us from the dangerous radiation just 20 miles above us. You would think those who discovered it would get a Nobel Prize.

They did.

What happened next is a great example of how the countries on this planet CAN work together when they have to. The Montreal Protocol in 1987 began a rapid phase out of CFC’s. There have been several follow up agreements that have strengthened the regulation of CFC’s. While the Ozone hole is still there, the amount of chlorine in the atmosphere is no longer climbing and the Ozone hole should begin closing around the middle of this century. It will not happen as quickly as thought a few years ago though, and this is where things get even more fascinating.

One of the predictions of global climate models is, that as greenhouse gases increase, the bottom of the atmosphere (the troposphere) will warm, while the stratosphere will get colder. This is certainly happening, and is yet another of the many separate verifications that the planetary warming is not natural. It’s unequivocally us.

Ozone actually warms the stratosphere when it absorbs ultra violet radiation. Over Antarctica, the lack of Ozone, is leading to an even colder stratosphere, and this may explain why Antarctica has been behaving somewhat differently than what was initially forecasted by global climate models.

The ozone layer should start recovering by mid century, IF we take action to keep CFC's and Bromine compounds out of the atmosphere.

The cooling stratosphere is causing more ozone to be depleted.  There is now talk of a new treaty to strengthen the previous agreements and include stringent limits on the chemical Bromine. Why? Bromine is far more capable of destroying Ozone than CFC’s.

We may not be out of the woods just yet. The Ozone hole reached a new record low in 2006. The colder stratosphere is actually causing more destruction of Ozone, and many researchers believe the Ozone hole will recover more slowly than anticipated. Current thinking is that it may not recover until the 2060′s.

The colder stratosphere is having an affect on the ice shelves of Antarctica as well. The polar vortex, is a strong semi permanent low pressure center in Antarctica. It’s gotten stronger, as a result of the colder stratosphere. This in turn, has caused warmer air and ocean water to reach the Antarctic Peninsula, causing the rapid rise in temperatures observed there. The opposite is happening to the Ross Ice Shelf. The vortex is steering colder air over the Ross shelf, causing it to grow!

Image from NOAA.2006 Saw a record low in stratospheric Ozone

One of the most common claims to be found on junk science sites is that Antarctica is getting colder, and that this somehow means that all that science published on climate change is wrong. Ask yourself this: Does it makes sense that everything we have learned about climate is all wrong, because 1/12th of the planet, is not behaving like the rest?

That’s what they would have you believe on some of these silly junk science sites!

Instead, it’s much more logical to look for an explanation that fits with the science that has built up from the time of Svante Arrhenius, and John Tyndal to Roger Revelle, and James Hanson. The history of what we know, and how we know it is a great way to understand any field of Science.

There is an excellent book that does just that. It’s THE DISCOVERY OF GLOBAL WARMING by Spencer Weart. You can read it online for free.

It’s frightening to know just how close we came to destroying our ONLY protection from the harsh reality above our thin layer of air. As the Duke of Wellington said about the battle of Waterloo, It was a damn near run thing.

Later,

Dan

Sources:
FIXING THE SKY- NATURE  Quirin Schiermeier 13 Aug 2007

Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
David W. J. Thompson, Susan Solomon
^{Science 3 May 2002:
Vol. 296. no. 5569, pp. 895 – 899
DOI: 10.1126/science.1069270}

FAQ on climate change based on real science. These are the questions meteorologists get most often. Click to get the entire FAQ pdf

I think a lot of the deniers of climate change can be explained by two thought processes that are both incorrect.

Ask yourself this question- Does the most selfish person on the planet, consider themselves selfish. The answer is very likely no.

Now let’s look at someone who has been  convinced that doing something about climate change means a significant change in their lifestyle, wealth, or ability to drive their favorite vehicle. Understand here, that there is overwhelming evidence that this is not likely the case, but let’s assume our “someone” believes it wholeheartedly.

So, what’s most likely to happen when someone who believes this, encounters someone who says climate science is all wrong? They can choose to believe them, and not have to battle with their conscience about being selfish, or they can believe the nearly unanimous opinion of climate scientists that we are heading for a catastrophe.

If they believe the first piece of misinformation, you can almost be certain that they will believe anyone who says climate change is not a problem. They will be chanting drill baby drill in no time. It’s the only way to go, otherwise they would have to think of themselves as selfish, and no one goes down that thought process!

Upton Sinclair, in his famous book about the Chicago meat packing industry, said it best. “It’s almost impossible to convince someone of anything, if their paycheck depends on it not being true”. You can see this affect in almost every environmental issue on the planet. Scientists are not immune. Those scientists working for big tobacco in the 1960-1980′s are a good example.

It’s truly amazing how far people will go to continue to believe that climate science is all wrong. I regularly hear from people who have convinced themselves that a giant conspiracy exists to prevent anyone who disagrees with the mainstream opinion, from being published in the front line science journals. They will readily believe two or three outlier science papers over the hundreds that clearly show the opposite is true. They will ignore the fact that nearly every major scientific body on the planet has endorsed the IPCC reports. (NASA, NOAA, The Royal Society, The Nat. Academies of Science in America, the AAAS, AGU, AMS, GSA, and dozens of others)

Instead they will choose to believe one or two cherry picked papers in a journal, or avidly follow web sites of those who peddle nothing but political propaganda and junk science like, Watts or Morano. Neither of whom have even a modest background in climate physics.

Acceptance of AGW Theory. There is a wide disconnect between the public and climate scientists

Their legions of followers are easy to spot. The email will have a link to something by Singer, or Monckton, or even more often mention Al Gore in the first paragraph. I rarely waste my time with these because nothing I can possibly say/show will change their minds. It’s much more productive to spend my time explaining it to those who truly have good questions, and are genuinely confused.

That is why I write this journal. If I can introduce a reader to real science before they fall into the junk science cult, they will see very quickly how silly the material is on these sites. Perhaps the only way to convince the cult of deniers, is to convince them that their initial assumtion that doing something about climate change will require a dramatic change in lifestyle is wrong!

They are correct in one aspect. This planet does not have the resources to support the citizens of China, and India having an American lifestyle. Not the way we currently make and use our energy. It most likely CAN support a first world India and China, if we do it smarter and use renewable energy in a vastly more efficient way. It all boils down to that.

However, the real science is getting clearer everyday.  We are rapidly running out of time to make the change.

Later,

Dan

NOTE: MY EARLIER STATEMENT THAT IMPLIED THAT S. FRED SINGER WORKED DIRECTLY FOR A TOBACCO COMPANY WAS BADLY PHRASED AND INCORRECT.  MY APOLOGIES TO DR. SINGER. DeSmog blog has investigated Mr. Singer’s involvement (if any) with Tobacco, and you can read the post here: http://www.desmogblog.com/s-fred-singer

Also: I require a real full name and valid email address on all comments. I do not publish links in comments to non published research. This journal is intended to to show real science, and it’s not a platform for junk science. That said your opinions are welcome. I have my regular forecast duties, and an Environmental Science class to teach, so I do not have time to email reminders of this policy.

My profession of Meteorology, and that of Astronomy, are the two sciences that have legions of citizen scientists who make lasting and significant contributions. The internet has increased this by an order of magnitude. It’s very gratifying to see, especially in a summer of silliness. The “war on Science” among some political groups goes on, but thousands of people around the world each day contribute to the sum of human knowledge, even if the job they make a living at has little or nothing to do with science.

COCORAHS needs you. Click to go the site

COCORAHS rain gauge.

Here are two examples. One from Meteorology, and the other from Astronomy. If you are interested in either, or both, I urge you to get involved!

First, is COCORAHS. The Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study is growing fast. Thousands of people around the USA have bought a 29$ rain gauge, and once a day they get online and report their rainfall/snowfall. The gauges are VERY accurate, and the data is valuable not just to synoptic forecasters like me, who may show it on tv, but to climatologists and hydrologists as well.

This data will be used for many years to adjust rainfall models, help farmers and plan for urban storm runoff. It may even be instrumental in telling us how fast greenhouse gases are changing our planet. More importantly, it may become valuable in a way we cannot imagine yet.

You can find out more by going HERE.

Now, to the stars, or to be more precise, the galaxies.

Click the image to go to Galaxy Zoo and start classifying galaxies!

GALAXYZOO.ORG is a web site where you can help Astronomers classify galaxies. This needs to be done. It’s real and it’s important and computers are LOUSY at it! The images of thousands of galaxies have been taken with professional telescopes. We need some good eyes to classify them. It’s not hard, and it’s a great introduction to the way real science works.

I just saw a paper in SCIENCE that had hundreds of authors listed. These authors for the most part were not professional astronomers, they were amateurs who were observing variable stars from all over the world and sending in their data to scientists investigating them. In Science, if you contribute, you are listed on the research paper. Thousands of amateur astronomers can proudly point to their name in the worlds most respected peer reviewed publications and know that they have added to our knowledge of the Universe.

So there you are. Two of many examples of citizen science. If you know a young person who loves the unknown, point them to this post. It could be a life changer for them. Anyone can contribute and it does make a difference!

Later,

Dan

This is for high school and up, but it’s extremely well done. If you take the time to read it, you will see why 95% of climate scientists believe we are seriously tampering with our climate. No, it’s not 100%, but keep in mind, 6% of people still believe the moon landing was a hoax, and the Earth is 6,000 years old.

Click on the image to read tamino’s (Scientist) excellent explanation.

Click to read the post on Open Mind

The newest GOES weather satellite is being checked out. NASA released the image below today. It was an image in Infra Red light at 10.7 microns. What you are really looking at is temperatures. High, cold clouds are bright white. Black ground is very warm. Low clouds over the oceans at about 5-10C are darker gray.

GOES satellites are at an altitude of 40,000 kilometers. At this altitude they orbit the Earth every 23 hours 56 mins. and 47 secs. Since it takes the Earth this same time to revolve once on it’s axis against the background of stars, (Sidereal Day) the satellite hovers over the same spot on Earth! This is far, far too high to be reached by the Shuttle.

It will be put in storage until the Goes East, or Goes West fails, and then become the operational weather satellite. It’s been said that if they could only spot hurricanes, they would be worth every penny. They do a lot more!

Goes 14 Image from NASA- Click for full size.