Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

I am a proud member of the International Association of Broadcast Meteorologists. Many of us who do weather on TV and radio realise that we may very well be the only person of science the average person sees each day. Those of us in the IABM take that responsibility very seriously. We strive to give accurate information on not only weather but on science in general.

Paul Gross of the IABM and the chair of the AMS Station Science Committee has an excellent editorial in the most recent issue of the IABM journal UP FRONT. (Full disclosure- Paul is a friend, and I am a member of the committee)

Here is a well reasoned and fact based look at the issue. I deserved wider dissemination than just us TV science types.

Click image for full pdf.

I have my own little mention in the UP FRONT. It is a summary of my trip to Antarctica. You can read it below.

Click to read. TV types- you should consider applying for membership in the IABM.

The National Climate Data Center (NOAA) has released the January global temperature data. January 2010 is the 4th warmest on record globally. What is more interesting is that looking at ocean temps. alone it was the second warmest on record. Only 1998, with it’s very strong El Nino, were the oceans warmer.

As I mentioned in the previous post, the heavy snowfall events of the past 6 weeks along the Eastern Seaboard could very well be related to the fact that the atmosphere holds more water now than 40 years ago. The unusually warm oceans may very well have played a role in the record snow event in Washington. Keep in mind we are talking about climate, and not weather. You cannot ascribe any one event to climate change. You can however say if the changes we have seen would make such an event more likely.

In this case the answer seems to be a “likely yes”.

It would not surprise me to hear some people claim that a blizzard somehow nullifies 100 years of peer reviewed science. Even someone like Donald Trump expressing such ignorance is not really surprising. What IS surprising that some United States Senators, and members of Congress, people who make our laws and run the country, are that ignorant.

These people really have no excuse. They should be ashamed to hold such a high office and be so uninformed.

No matter what party they belong to.

Later,
Dan

Trust me on this. Don’t email your local meteorologist and say something like “What do you think of global warming now with all these blizzards?” You will come across rather silly if not down right ignorant.

Why?

Let’s think about it for a minute. Consider a few things before we jump to the keyboard. My grandmother always said you can’t say something silly if you keep your mouth shut. Something I have learned the hard way far too many times.

Yes, it has been the snowiest winter on record in Washington DC. Pretty bad in Boston and the Big Apple too. Those cities are less than 600 km apart. The planet is about 40,000 km around at the equator. The weather in the Northeast USA is not usually representative of the planet as a whole. Climate change IS affecting the entire planet though.

The Winter Olympics start Friday in Vancouver. They have been trucking in snow, because it has been so unusually warm! That’s no surprise either, because when Mother Nature brings the cold down to one part of the planet, she almost always compensates somewhere else.

Satellite derived temperatures worldwide from analysis done at UAH in Huntsville. (Note that their method of analysis usually runs cooler than a similar analysis done by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Cal.)

You might wonder just what the planets temperature is right now??

The answer is unusually warm.

We just finished one of the warmest years on the instrumental record. The satellite measurements of the lower troposphere (The bottom part of the atmosphere where weather occurs) are actually indicating the warmest temps ever recorded using this method. The January surface data from NASA/NCDC is days away and I will lay odds it is near all time levels for January.

Another fact to consider is that weather and climate are two different things. If the temp. continues to warm another 4C by the year 2100, we will still have all time record lows and we will still have blizzards. The blizzards may not be as frequent, but they may very well have a lot more snow.

The reason is simple thermodynamics. Warmer air can “hold” more water vapor. The IPCC has estimated that the atmosphere has 4% more water vapor in it now than 40 years ago because of the warming we have already experienced. Even in a warmer world we will still see all time record lows. The all time record highs will far outnumber them though.

Click to read Meteorologist Jeff Masters explanation of Heavy Snowfall in A Warming World

Doctor Jeff Masters is a Meteorologist who writes an excellent blog on the Weather Undergound site. He has a very good explanation of this on his latest post. Click the image and read it. I bet you will think twice before typing that email to your local weather geek afterwards.

If you live in the Northeastern USA or Western Europe you are living through a very historic winter. Same for those living ,where I write this tonight, in Tulsa Oklahoma. Snow, snow and a lot more snow. Baltimore is buried under at least two feet tonight.

What’s causing it?

The Arctic Oscillation. (AO)

It also goes by other names. Older forecasters like myself prefer the NAO for North Atlantic Oscillation. Younger and brighter meteorologists prefer the Northern Annular Mode. Whatever you call it, the result is the same. This is what you can blame  for all the snow.

My friend Bob Henson at the National Centers for Atmospheric Research is an expert at making something complicated easy. If you don’t  believe me, read his book the Rough Guide to Climate Change. Click the image below to see his explanation.

It won’t get your car dug out, or your power back on sooner, but you will at least know why you are freezing under the covers!

Chaz Firestone accompanied Ann Posegate, and I to Antarctica and his report on the Ice core project underway is in NATURE NEWS this week.

Chaz Firestone accompanied Ann Posegate and I to Antarctica.  He is a native of Toronto, and was part of our group the NSF took to Antarctica.

Weather prevented Ann and I from getting to the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet drill site named WAIS Divide. Chaz and Lee Hotz from our group did make it. They were caught there by weather too.

Chaz is former editor of the Brown University newspaper. His first hand account of the ice cores being drilled at WAIS is in NATURE NEWS this week.

These cores are vital to our understanding of climate change. They will give us a detailed account of the past climate, with accuracy never before seen. It may very well be among the most important research projects on Earth.

Indeed, it could answer the question of just how long we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, it may also tell us we are already too late to avoid a significant change to Earth’s climate.

Click the Image below to read Chaz’s Article.

click image to read the Nature News Article.