Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Data from the Univ. of Illinois shows the NW Passage is now mainly clear of ice.

Meteorologist Jeff Masters has a lot more about it, but the NW Passage is now mainly free of ice and is navigable. You can see a cool 30 day animation of the melt here. It looks like the NE Passage from Europe to Alaska is almost free as well. Masters says this is the 4th consecutive year that the passage has opened. It’s also the 4th time in recorded history.

The sea ice will continue to melt for a couple of more weeks but the big freeze is already starting above 80 degrees. There were already signs of summer’s end when I was in Greenland three weeks ago.

The real story is not so much the amount of ice on the surface but the overall volume of the ice. This too is dropping very rapidly.  Look at the graphic below from the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington.

Dr. Masters has an excellent detailed writeup on this with a commentary that is spot on.

The surface sea ice melt will not reach a new record this year but it will be close.

The great melt off at the top of the World continues.

Predictions made 20 years ago by Hansen and others that climate change would show up first and most strongly in the Arctic have certainly been proven true…

from Church J.A. and White N.J. "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise" Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602

NASA’s top climate scientist James Hansen has put together a new website. It basically updates the graphics in his book “Storms of My Grandchildren“. Definitely worth checking out for the graphics which are from papers published in the peer reviewed literature.

If you have not read the book, I highly recommend it. It’s even available for iPad and Kindle (Which makes me happy since I pretty much read everything on my iPad now).

Click image for full resolution. Image from NASA Aqua satellite.

The amazing and unprecedented Russian heat wave continues. Moscow hit 34C today, which is cooler than the near 38C (100°F) temperatures of the last few days. The fires burning in the drought ravaged peat bogs and forests around Moscow continue to cover Western Russia in a thick pall of smoke.

The intense heat can also be seen from the MODIS sensor on the NASA Terra satellite. This sensor allowed researchers to measure the average ground temperature over Russia from July 20-27th. They then compared that with the normal temperatures you would expect in late July to produce the map below.

Red areas indicate above normal temperatures. Blue is areas where the temp. was below normal from 20-27 July 2010. Image from NASA Terra satellite. Click for higher resolution.

There are some strong indications that the storm track over Russia is about to change and allow some cooler air to reach Moscow. It looks like it will stay quite warm but when you are breaking the record high by 19 degrees day after day, anything cooler is welcome. Keep in mind too that at Moscow’s latitude almost no one has an air conditioner. Until this year they would only be needed a couple of days a year!

Coverage of the heatwave on the BBC is worth reading and do check out the podcast of FOC (From our Own Correspondent) for a first hand account.

As for the climate change connections, see my last post on the Moscow heat. It still holds.

Here in Huntsville, we set a new record today. Today makes 37 days in a row with the morning low at 21C (70F) or higher. We also just had the hottest 10 days ever recorded here. Greenland is looking very nice right now!

Dan

Amazing satellite image from Monday showing smoke covering much of Western Russia. NASA/Modis image. Click for higher resolution. Fires denoted by red dots.

The death toll from the heat and smoke in Moscow is climbing rapidly. BBC Radio reported today that the death rate in Moscow is running 2-5 times normal.

This is not an ordinary heat wave. It’s actually almost unbelievable meteorologically. It’s not unusual to set a record high. It’s very rare to set an all time high temperature, but it happens from time to time in extreme situations.

What IS nearly unheard of is setting a new all time record high, then tying or breaking it 5 times in the same month! Imagine setting a record high and breaking the old record by 19 degrees F.! That’s what Moscow did on Monday 9 August. The old record was 90 in 2001. Monday Moscow hit 99F and that ties the warmest temp. Ever recorded there.

This has been going on since July as well. This kind of heat in a city where almost no one has or needs air conditioning.

CHOKING FOREST FOREST FIRES

The heat and dry weather has caused the swampy land full of peat bogs around Moscow to dry out and they are now burning. The smoke they are producing has reduced the visibility in Red Square to about 1 km. On Saturday, the Carbon Monoxide levels reached 5 times the unhealthful level.

RELIEF IN SIGHT?

There are some strong indications that a cool front will bring at least some temporary relief to NW Russia in about 5-7 days. Unfortunately, several thousand people will not likely live to see it.

Temperature anomalies in July over Eastern Europe. The heat has gotten worse since then...

SOME OTHER OPINIONS

Meteorologist Jeff Masters has a very good writeup about the heat in Russia here. There are some amazing pics from Russia courtesy of the Boston Globe as well.

CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED

You have to be very careful in blaming any one weather event on climate change. That said, the warming over the last 50 years has been much greater in the higher latitudes. Dr. Michael Tobis at the Univ. of Texas in Austin makes a decent case for calling this event at least VERY suspicious as far as climate is concerned.

Dan

Smoke covers the Canadian Prairies Saturday. NASA Aqua Satellite image. Click for super high HD resolution.

Smoke from forest fires in Western Canada has spread across much of the Canadian Prairies and well south into the U.S. British Columbia is tracking over 400 forest fires and other fires are reported in Alberta.

Smoke across the midwest USA. Image from Ray Hoff's U.S. Air Quality blog. Click to see more data.

The smoke is not only visible on satellite images across Canada but it has reached as far south as Kentucky. The smoke has pushed up air quality indexes across much of the Midwest. Those with asthma and other breathing disorders are being urged to avoid outdoor activity.

SOUTHERN HEAT

Across the Southern USA the weather story is the intense heat. Here in Huntsville we have had no rain in August in most areas. Another week of temperatures above 35C (95F) is on the way. Most areas will stay about 10 degrees above normal for August this week.

In Europe it is just the opposite. The heat and the smoke are in the North! Moscow continues to suffer though it’s hottest weather ever recorded along with thick smoke from forest fires. The smoke and smog in Moscow is so bad that it is downright dangerous to breathe!

GET USED TO IT

Something to think about. Here in the southeast USA, this kind of summer is expected to become the normal by the end of the century.

Dan