Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Model data from the MM5 model we use in the weather office. The arrows are surface wind vectors. The southerly flow will push the oil toward the coast over the next few days.

The oil gets closer. One report has it less than 17 miles off of Dauphin Island Al. The model guidance is all showing a south to SW flow at the surface and this will push the oil in a NE direction. NOAA’s ocean current models are similar.

Forecast of oil at Noon Tuesday. Black line is the uncertainty envelope. Click image for larger version- from NOAA

See the previous post for more on the oil and related info. Samantha Joy is a scientist with the Univ. of Georgia who is on the scene collecting data. She has an exc. blog with information on what is being seen beneath the surface.

Dan

NASA Modis image of the oil slick. The southern part is approaching the Gulf Loop Current. Click image for much larger version.

The Gulf Loop current may very well be picking up the oil slick in the Gulf. This would bring the oil down through the Florida Keys and into the Gulf Stream. Eventually passing between Florida and the Bahamas.

NOAA ocean current model showing the Gulf Loop Current. (Brighter blue.)

Oil in this area could cause severe damage to ocean reefs in the Keys and near the Bahamas. The ocean current models show the path of the loop current very well.

This image from the Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) is a forecast of the current late Wednesday afternoon. It’s for water about 100 meters beneath the surface. The loop current is at the surface of the Ocean as well.

Although some oil is now being captured, at least 80% of the leak and probably much more is still flowing into the Gulf. Large plumes of oil are now being detected beneath the surface.

Wind forecast near the coasts, based on numerical weather prediction models. (NOAA NWS)

There is a large amount of oil now west of the Miss. Delta. The wind forecast will continue to push it toward areas along the coast as well. In general the slick seems to be spreading out in a North/South direction.

Doppler Velocity image of a deadly tornado in Oklahoma this afternoon. The storm was repsonsible for at least three deaths and millions in damage. The triangle is the location of the strongest wind shear. Blue is wind toward the radar and red is wind away from the radar. One of the most incredible velocity images of a tornado I have seen. Click for full res. WSR88D Doppler Radar at Tinker AFB near OKC,OK.

It’s been a busy month for those of us who forecast weather.  Tracking volcanic ash using upper level wind forecast and using ocean current models to track the growing oil slick in the Gulf. Today it was a little of all three.

Oklahoma was hit by a swarm of tornadoes today. At least 4 are dead. Many people have lost there homes. Cars and large trucks were flipped in the air along I-35 and I-40. With modern technology, I could watch the same radar images that forecasters in Oklahoma were looking at. Large tornadoes show up very well on Doppler radar. Today they were very easy to spot.

In the Hollywood movie “TWISTER” the town of Wakita, Oklahoma is hit by a big tornado. Today, Wakita really WAS hit by a large tornado. See the radar image below.

Hook echo approaching the town of Wakita, Oklahoma. Fortunately, it appears there were no deaths. Warnings DO make a difference!

As for the oil in the Gulf…

NASA Modis view of the oil slick in the Gulf. Taken Monday 10 May.

The slick is noticeably bigger on the NASA Terra satellite images today.

Ocean current models continue to indicate the oil will spread toward Louisiana. There is already oil spreading westward of the Mouth of the Mississippi and Northward onto Dauphin Island in Alabama.

The oil is showing up as gray and a dark color surrounding it in the middle right of the image to the left.

You can click the image and see a much larger version.

Now for the Volcano in Iceland…

It’s still erupting and the only reason air traffic is not snarled, is the upper level winds are blowing it south into the mid Atlantic. If the winds change and start blowing the ash toward Europe again…

Here is a pic from the NASA Terra satellite today.

From NASA Modis sensor on the TERRA satellite. Ckick for full res.

There are several towns in Iceland that have been covered in thick ash from the volcano. That is not getting nearly the coverage that the flight delays are. You have to feel for those folks…

The nearby Katla volcano usually erupts within a few months of it’s neighbor. It’s eruptions are much bigger. MUCH BIGGER.

No sign of that happening…yet…

Dan

View of the Iceland ash cloud taken Saturday midday by NASA Terra Satellite. Click image for full res.

The winds aloft are blowing the ash mainly over the Atlantic today.

Wind flow at around 18,000 feet (500hpk) for Midnight Sunday. NOAA Numerical Weather model (GFS). (The red and blue shading is vorticity-weather geek stuff, just look at the black lines and my arrow toward the UK.)

Some of it is rotating around an upper level low and causing problems in Spain. The wind flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will blow it more toward the UK and Europe starting late Sunday.  Heathrow and Gatwick could very well be affected.

The ash is up to around 5,000 meters today. Transatlantic flights can get above it. If it gets higher (above 30,000 feet), then more widespread disruptions are likely.

The same satellite also passed over the Gulf just before Noon. It got a great shot of the oil.

See below.

Oil slick is visible at the middle bottom of the pic. Click image for full resolution.

Late word tonight is that the attempt to put a cover over it has failed. Ice is forming in it.

This is probably from the sudden drop in pressure as the oil escapes the sea bed. The tremendous pressure differences between the sub surface and the sea bed are likely involved. The same differences in pressure from the sea floor to the surface will also make this EXTREMELY difficult.

You can demonstrate this to yourself by rapidly letting the air out of your car tires while holding onto the valve. Feel how cold it gets??

Dan

NASA MODIS Satellite pass over the Iceland Volcano today. Huge ash cloud visible but it is not being blown toward Europe (as of now at least). Click image for much higher resolution.

The upper level winds are not blowing the ash toward the UK today and that is very good news. If they were, there would be widespread cancellations of flights. The cloud is especially thick.

One way to see the ash is to use a little trick. By looking at the brightness (temp.) difference between two channels on the image, the ash shows up very well. This is an animated gif, and will take awhile to load.

The good news is that late today the eruption has become much quieter and the ash is not as high as earlier.

Geological experts in Iceland are reporting that there are no signs the eruption will end anytime soon.

Sensors on most of the weather satellites are not really designed to see the ash. There has been a lot of work recently to use the available sensors to see as much as possible. The best way to see it is to use LIDAR. This is a form of radar using lasers. The UK Met office has had considerable luck using this from the ground to look at the ash cloud over the UK.

This event and the oil slick in the Gulf highlight the incredible usefulness of using remote sensing instruments in orbit. They pay for themselves many times over. The USA and Europe have fallen behind in putting these sensors on orbital platforms.

The technology is there, we just need to use it.

Here below is the latest view of the oil slick in the Gulf. Keep in mind you are only seeing the heaviest patch of oil. It is much more widespread than it appears.

True colour image from NASA's Aqua satellite. The thickest oil shows up well. It now appears the oil slick has moved west of the mouth of the Mississippi. Click image for much bigger view.

The movement of both the ash and the oil are very dependent on the atmospheric winds. The winds may start blowing the ash back toward Europe next week. The oil is much more difficult to predict…

Dan