The Iceland Volcano ash cloud is clearly visible in this image taken from space today. Image from NASA Aqua satellite in true colour. click image for much bigger version.

The ash is back.

Ireland has just announced airspace closings for tomorrow and there is now concern that the ash may start to seriously effect flights in the UK. If Gatwick and Heathrow in London shut down the impact will be felt worldwide.

Winds at 10,000 feet for tomorrow night. Wind will flow paralell to the black lines. Model data ctsy. Penn State.

Looking at the model data tonight, the greatest threat seems to be Ireland but there may be a narrow window late tomorrow when the ash will be funneled by the upper level winds toward the UK. Late in the week a high will build south of Iceland and this should keep the ash away from Europe for a few days.

One bit of good news. The ash is mainly below 20,000 feet. This means a transatlantic flright from Amsterdam or Paris will be able to fly well above it.

The airspace shut down a couple of weeks ago was much more severe because the ash was up to 34,000 feet. (I know I usually do all metric on this blog but air traffic around the world still uses flight levels in feet)

Now another image from the same satellite.

In the previous post I showed the image from the Aqua satellite pass over Nashville today.

I went back and grabbed a shot taken just about a year ago of the same area. The before and after images show very well the magnitude of the floods.

Here is the image from May 21 2009.

AQUA image of Nashville and Middle TN. on 21 May 2009. Nashville is dead center in the image. The Cumberland River is visible but not easily. Click for full res. Ctsy. NASA.

Now here is the image from my previous post showing the same area today at 1850 GMT (1:50 pm local Nashville time).

The image taken today shows the magnitude of the severe flood.

Could this flood be related to climate change? Possibly. I wrote a post on that a few days ago.

More soon,

Dan

The unpronounceable Volcano is causing air traffic problems again. Photo from Iceland Met Office. Photo by Olafur Sigurjonsson

Ireland is closing it’s airspace at 7am Tuesday morning because of ash. The ash is below 20,000 feet so it may not be too disruptive to transatlantic air traffic. The ash is expected to drift over the UK later Tuesday and this may impact Heathrow and Gatwick. If that happens, you will see major disruptions.

Below is the latest forecast from the UK Met office:

Ash forecast courtesy UK Met Office.

The eruption shows no sign of abating. Thankfully, Katla the more dangerous volcano nearby is (so far) quiet.

I’ll post updates if things change. Looking at the upper air charts as well…
dan

Click image for the full resolution! The ash layer is at 10-16,000 feet now instead of the higher altitudes over the weekend. From NASA. This new cloud is headed toward the UK.

There is actually some good news tonight. The ash cloud over Europe has diminished and begun to sink south of Paris and London. Here is the outlook for tomorrow regarding the no go areas.

Ash extent forecast for Tuesday 7 am London time. From UK Met Office.

Most of England is in the clear by 1 PM! From UK Met Office.

Late word tonight that the eruption has picked back up. The current wind flow will steer the new ash cloud toward the UK, Central England in particular. So the openings of the airports tomorrow may be brief. See below.

The ash will be at a lower altitude but it may become more dense and put an end to the planned reopening of the airspace over the UK tomorrow. Further east there is more hope for flights.

Keflavik Radar from Iceland Met Office. No plume from the ash currently being detected!

The weather radar at the Keflivik Airport is not seeing a plume from the ash cloud this evening. The last report from the UK Met. Office is a plume height of 16,000 feet. This is much lower than over much of the last 72 hours.

There is also good news on the flight restrictions. The lower levels are looking much better. It looks possible that flights could operate from Paris tomorrow, and even some domestic UK flights might be possible.

Restricted flight zones due to ash from Iceland. Image from UK Met Office/NATS

Ash cloud approaching 30,000 feet over Iceland. Courtesy Iceland Met Office.

The UK has now grounded aircraft through 1AM GMT Sunday. The ash cloud has gotten worse and there is a new plume headed toward Europe as the image above indicates. Meteorologists from the Iceland Met Office flew o Friday near the volcano to check the height of the ash cloud and reported it is nearly 30,000 feet (10,000 meters).

The upper level winds at this level will steer the ash toward NW and Central Europe. The conditions may very well worsen over the weekend.

Why?

Look at the winds forecasted for Sunday at 34,000 feet from the UK Met Office numerical weather prediction model:

Winds at flight level 34,000 feet from UKMet Model. Image courtesy UK Met Office and 21st Weather Squadron USAF

A “Eureka Alert from SCIENCE late Friday has some interesting and alarming news:

Public release date: 16-Apr-2010
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Contact: Jay Miller
miller@iodp.tamu.edu
979-845-5740
Texas A&M University

Icelandic volcanoes can be unpredictable and dangerous, say Texas A&M prof

If history is any indication, the erupting volcano in Iceland and its immense ash plume could intensify, says a Texas A&M University researcher who has explored Icelandic volcanoes for the past 25 years.

Jay Miller, a research scientist in the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program who has made numerous trips to the region and studied there under a Fulbright grant, says the ash produced from Icelandic volcanoes can be a real killer, which is why hundreds of flights from Europe have been cancelled for fear of engine trouble.

“What happens is that the magma from the volcano is around 1,200 degrees and it hits the water there, which is near freezing,” he explains. “What is produced is a fine ash that actually has small pieces of glass in it, and it can very easily clog up a jet engine. If you were to inhale that ash, it would literally tear up your lungs.”

Miller says most volcanoes in Iceland erupt only about every five years on average and are relatively mild, but history is repeating itself. Extremely large eruptions occurred there in 934 A.D. and again in 1783 that covered Europe with ash much like today.

“Ben Franklin was ambassador to France in 1783 and he personally witnessed the large ash clouds over Europe, and he later wrote that it was a year in which there was no summer,” Miller adds. “The big question now is, what happens next? It’s very possible this eruption could last for quite some time, but no one knows for sure. Volcanoes in that part of the world are very hard to predict.”

—–

Here below is the latest ash coverage forecast from the UK Met Office:

Ash cloud from UK Met Office

More soon,

Dan