Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Hurricane Danielle in the Mid Atlantic and a strong tropical wave near the coast of Africa. Image from Meteosat (Dundee Univrsity ground station).

We are now in the peak of the hurricane season and the Tropical Atlantic is heating up. The second hurricane of the season formed this afternoon in the mid Atlantic.

Hurricane Danielle will likely re-curve though and not affect North America. There is a slight chance of it approaching the NE coast of the U.S. or Canada.

More interesting is the strong tropical wave coming off of Africa behind it. Satellite images this evening show that it is very organized and we will likely see a tropical depression form soon after it gets away from the coast of Africa.

Dan

Hurricane Alex IR image (Courtesy if CIMMS U Wisc.)

Hurricane Alex is already producing flooding along the South Texas Coast as it nears landfall. Winds are at 90 mph in the eye wall near the center. The amount of storm surge is VERY dependent on the shape of ocean bottom and the angle the storm comes into the coast. So don’t assume that a category one storm will not produce serious flooding. It can.

Meteorologist Alan Raymond of our staff spent last night flying into Alex with the Hurricane Hunter aircraft based at Keesler AFB in Mississippi.

Alex is the first June hurricane since 1995. Most tropical storms develop after August 1st each year.

Dan

Update 6pm CDT- Alex is now a Cat Two storm with 100 mph winds.

Tropical Storm Alex is looking quite healthy this afternoon and has finally started moving. There seems to be a growing consensus among the models that Alex will come ashore in Mexico, well south of Brownsville, Texas. The latest movement, along with the new guidance, is a bit left of the last NHC track.  Look for a shift the forecast a little southward in the next advisory.

Click for full resolution- Courtesy USNRL.

It is not out of the question that Alex could reach Category two strength before landfall, and the swells from the storm will likely impact the oil slick operations well across the Gulf.

Update: The NOAA 18 Polar orbiter has a a sensor called the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. This allows a radar type image of the storm and can be very helpful in determining storm structure. Looking at the latest pass, it does not show an eye yet.

The rest of the tropics seem quiet right now.

Meteorologist Alan Raymond from our office will be on board the Air Force recon. aircraft for the overnight fixes. He may very well be flying into a hurricane. Alex is very close now…

Hurricane Darby in the Pacific (120 mph sustained winds) and a tropical wave south of cuba that may be developing. NOAA GOES image.

It seems we may have our first Atlantic Basin tropical system forming this evening. I’ve been here in Miami all week at the annual AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology. This is the 38th Broadcast Conference and one of the best I’ve attended.

The Director of the National Hurricane Center and many of their forecasters put on an excellent seminar Wednesday on tropical meteorology.  Director Bill Read also spoke at our luncheon today.

View from my room of Miami Beach.

The NOAA forecasters and broadcast meteorologists like myself know how important our jobs are in hurricane season. It really is helpful to both groups to understand the problems we each face. Many are very similar and some are rather different.

Tonight, we’re all interested in a system that seems to be organizing in the Western Caribbean. An Air Force Reserve plane is currently investigating to see if a tropical depression has formed.

With a La Nina brewing and record warm waters in the oceans, a late June storm would not be surprising. We get one about 50% of the time. Most of the hurricanes form after August 1st each year.

It’s too early to say much about this system but if it forms it might enter the western Gulf in a few days. Swell from a storm would likely have a big impact on the work around the oil spill, so this could be of extreme importance.

I met the Director of the NHC for the first time today. Say what you will about government, but they got the right man for that job. The forecasters and researchers who work under him are top notch as well, and all of the broadcasters were VERY appreciative of the tremendous seminar and presentations the hurricane specialists put together.

Without doubt we all have one thing in common. We are all very passionate about giving the best information possible to the public.

I’ll post an update if the plane finds a closed circulation.

Update 7:22 PM EDT Fri 25 June:

The recon plane has found a closed circulation and the NHC has begun advisories on TD One. The latest probabilities on tropical storm force winds are below:

From NOAA/TPC/NHC Forecast from Friday evening. Do not use after tonight.

More soon.

I have had a TON of questions about the impact of a Gulf hurricane on the oil slick. The short answer to this is nobody really knows. NOAA has a short document out that covers the questions and what little IS known.

Good science here:

Click for the pdf.

More soon…