Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

So while I am  looking intently at the model guidance for next week and the possible blizzard up the East Coast, Mother Nature decides not to wait!

It is looking very likely that a snow hurricane may develop in 48 hours over the Northeast! I bet my friends Harvey Leonard and Dick Albert in Boston are locked away looking at weather charts right now! Will it be too warm for a foot of snow?? Perhaps.If you are in Boston, listen to Harvey or Dick, they have forecasted a thousand of these!

Glad that forecast is not my problem today!!

High resolution Numerical Weather model for sunrise Friday. It indicates an intense low pressure near Boston. The black lines are isobars. The closer they are together, the faster the wind speed.

As for the possible blizzard early next week….

The models are still trending toward a weaker Southeast snow event…not sure I trust that yet!

GFS Model from NOAA for sunrise Tuesday. The red dashed line is the APPROXIMATE rain snow line. Image ctsy. Penn State Univ. Meteorology (Which hurts to say since I am an Okla Univ. Met. grad!)

The long range numerical weather prediction models continue to show wild run to run swings regarding the possible next winter storm to pound the Eastern USA. There is little doubt that something is coming, but the track and the amount of cold air is still very questionable.

Here is an example of the differences. The picture below is from the DGEX. It’s a long range model run this afternoon and the forecast you see is for Tuesday morning. It indicates a real heavy snowstorm developing and heading up the East Coast. This is the worst case scenario.

Long Range "DGEX" Model from Penn State Meteorology Dept. It is indicating a deepening blizzard early next week.

The Morning model run from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model is much different than yesterday. It does not phase the northern branch of the jet stream and has a much weaker storm further south.

If you live in the Northeastern USA or Western Europe you are living through a very historic winter. Same for those living ,where I write this tonight, in Tulsa Oklahoma. Snow, snow and a lot more snow. Baltimore is buried under at least two feet tonight.

What’s causing it?

The Arctic Oscillation. (AO)

It also goes by other names. Older forecasters like myself prefer the NAO for North Atlantic Oscillation. Younger and brighter meteorologists prefer the Northern Annular Mode. Whatever you call it, the result is the same. This is what you can blame  for all the snow.

My friend Bob Henson at the National Centers for Atmospheric Research is an expert at making something complicated easy. If you don’t  believe me, read his book the Rough Guide to Climate Change. Click the image below to see his explanation.

It won’t get your car dug out, or your power back on sooner, but you will at least know why you are freezing under the covers!

We continue to get pics and video from viewers after yesterday’s tornado here in the Huntspatch (Huntsville AL).

Viewer Lauryn Draper shot some great video fo it and put it up on YouTube. The video was shot a few blocks from our studios. The tornado WAS on the ground through most of this video I suspect. Tornadoes are wind and not cloud, so just because you could not see the funnel in contact with the ground does not mean it wasn’t.  It began doing damage near the end of this video.

Viewer Cristie Clark sent me the video below from a different angle. You can hear the Tornado Sirens sounding across the city clearly.

Me at the entry sign into McMurdo.

I’ve spent one day and zero nights here at the bottom of the World now. Before bed last night I walked to building 155 to get  midnight rations in the cafeteria. The sun was shining high above the dirt main street that is McMurdo Station.

Midnight rats, as they call it, was delicious. The NSF has kindly given me a distinguished visitor pass so I can eat right at midnight instead of waiting until 12:30 when all of those who are not working an overnight shift can eat. The food is free and plentiful. The cold and hard work means you have a very high metabolism. 4,000 calorie per day diets are the norm for many and at the pole, where it’s MUCH colder and higher, a 6,000 calorie a day diet is common.

Brian Johnson explains putting up a tent in Antarctic conditions. Josh Landis of CBS on right. We were standing on Snow (on top of sea ice) on the McMurdo Ice Shelf..

Today was survival school. It lasted all day. It’s mandatory for anyone going to the inland sites away from the bases at McMurdo or South Pole. Since we are going to the Western Antarctic Ice Shelf drill site, and the Dry Valleys, our group of 8 were required to do the course.

Brian Johnson of the McMurdo staff was our instructor and he was a fountain of fabulous information.  I learned info that may save my life someday, although I hope I never need it.

Memorial at Hut Point to member of the British Antarctic Expedition. Mcmurdo Ice shelf behind me. Pic taken at 1125PM.

Afterwards we drove in the snow bus for an hour to a spot on Ross Island called “room with a view”. I’m not even close to being a good enough writer to describe it- but I took pics!

Let’s just say that I have never seen anything like it, and unless you have been here- you haven’t either!

Everyone here works very hard. Support staff outnumber scientists and researchers by five to one. It takes a lot to survive here. The living quarters are very spartan. I have a tiny bed and a tiny desk. No light in the room. (It’s light all the time so not really needed.) My room mate is one of the survival school instructors.

The main thing you do is sweat.

Really! I kid you not.

Our transport onto the ice shelf. It took about 20 minutes from McMurdo, but we drove another hour out to a spot called "room with a view".

See, you have to keep your ECW (Extreme Weather Clothing) gear nearby when going away from the base. Depending on the weather, you usually get hot and sweaty walking in the heavy bunny boots. The ECW kit is very good. You do stay warm, but it takes awhile to get the right amount of layers. When you exert yourself, the needed layers change!

Warnings are posted everywhere about not getting dehydrated. EVERYWHERE.

You can think of McMurdo as a kind of busy mining town surrounded by nothing. I mean nothing. Empty and quiet and very bright white. Intensely beautiful. Amazingly beautiful and vast.

A Skua flying over us at lunch. They are the scavengers of the Antarctic.

More than any picture can convey.

There are Penguins and Leopard Seals and Skuas (The scavenger bird of Antarctica) The wildlife have no fear of humans at all, but disturbing them in anyway is strictly prohibited. The Antarctic Treaty is followed to the letter and spirit, with the the t’s crossed and the i’s dotted. If it can be recycled it is. Trash that has to be burned is shipped to Port Hueneme California and incinerated. 65% of waste at McMurdo is recycled.

This is the greenest town on Earth bar none. McMurdo sets a fabulous example for the rest of the world.

I saved the biggest news for last!

Tomorrow is Sunday here ( I wrote this at 830pm Saturday night here in Mac Town.) At 2pm Sunday out on the Mcmurdo Ice Shelf is the annual New Zealand (Scott Base) vs USA  (McMurdo Base) Rugby game. They play in the snow on frozen ocean. Wearing bunny boots!

The view from Hut Point. About a 10 minute walk from my room. Robert Falcon Scott's 1902 hut is just a few steps away. I will show pics of that tomorrow!

In case you do not know, Rugby is wildly popular among the Kiwis and they play it very well. The American team has NEVER won. Actually the McMurdo team has never scored a point!

So tomorrow at 2pm I will cover my first sporting event! Pics and video to come!! (Trust me if you are wagering, bet on the Kiwis! (everyone here is!)

Dan

McMurdo Science Base, Antarctica

22:42 Saturday 9 January 2010