Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

The unpronounceable Volcano is causing air traffic problems again. Photo from Iceland Met Office. Photo by Olafur Sigurjonsson

Ireland is closing it’s airspace at 7am Tuesday morning because of ash. The ash is below 20,000 feet so it may not be too disruptive to transatlantic air traffic. The ash is expected to drift over the UK later Tuesday and this may impact Heathrow and Gatwick. If that happens, you will see major disruptions.

Below is the latest forecast from the UK Met office:

Ash forecast courtesy UK Met Office.

The eruption shows no sign of abating. Thankfully, Katla the more dangerous volcano nearby is (so far) quiet.

I’ll post updates if things change. Looking at the upper air charts as well…
dan

The NASA Aqua satellite can clearly see the oil slick from space. It's the size of the U.S. state of Delaware.

Late word on Wednesday night that the oil slick in the Gulf is being fed by a leak that is 5 times bigger than first estimated. At 5,000 feet deep it is going to be very difficult to stop it.

Numerical weather prediction model showing strong SE winds late Friday night across the Gulf. This forecast is likely to be quite accurate.

The normal current flow in the Gulf this time of year will likely push the oil toward the northeast. The winds have been very light over the area for the past few days, but that is about to change. A strong southeast to south wind will pick up on Thursday afternoon and increase Friday and Saturday.

The first area to feel the effects will likely be the wildlife refuges near the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. If the oil makes it ashore in Alabama and NW Florida, the effects will be a devastating blow to the tourism industry.

The beautiful white sandy beaches from Gulf Shores to Destin are definitely in danger tonight.

The increasing winds will cause larger waves and that may disperse some of the oil. The problem is that instead of 40,000 gallons a day coming out of the well head, it is closer to 200,000 gallons.

It certainly has the potential to be a great environmental disaster.

Dan

Image from NASA Modis Satellite 2 pm UK time. The thinning ash cloud is being absorbeb by a low pressure SE of Iceland.

Great news for air travelers this evening. The eruption in Iceland is now putting out much less ash and the cloud is much lower. The low level ash is not headed toward the UK as the image above shows.

The snow-cap that covered the volcano has melted away. This has reduced the steam/ash combination that was climbing to over 3,000 meters.

Even more good news tonight. The upper level and lower level winds will push any new ash cloud to the North of the UK and France. It looks likely that airports will be opening across Western Europe tomorrow and this is now being confirmed by the BBC.

Keflavik Radar from Iceland Met Office. No plume from the ash currently being detected!

The weather radar at the Keflivik Airport is not seeing a plume from the ash cloud this evening. The last report from the UK Met. Office is a plume height of 16,000 feet. This is much lower than over much of the last 72 hours.

There is also good news on the flight restrictions. The lower levels are looking much better. It looks possible that flights could operate from Paris tomorrow, and even some domestic UK flights might be possible.

Restricted flight zones due to ash from Iceland. Image from UK Met Office/NATS

Micahel Tobis, over at Only In It For The Gold, is always a worthy read. Today, he had the image below in a post:

Image courtesy of Only In It For The Gold. Click to go there.

For a much more detailed answer, the go to person is Michael Pollan. Here are two article Dr. Pollan wrote for the NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/opinion/10pollan.html

The second one is best but much longer. It will make your jaw drop.

Open Letter to President Elect Obama