Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

NASA MODIS Satellite pass over the Iceland Volcano today. Huge ash cloud visible but it is not being blown toward Europe (as of now at least). Click image for much higher resolution.

The upper level winds are not blowing the ash toward the UK today and that is very good news. If they were, there would be widespread cancellations of flights. The cloud is especially thick.

One way to see the ash is to use a little trick. By looking at the brightness (temp.) difference between two channels on the image, the ash shows up very well. This is an animated gif, and will take awhile to load.

The good news is that late today the eruption has become much quieter and the ash is not as high as earlier.

Geological experts in Iceland are reporting that there are no signs the eruption will end anytime soon.

Sensors on most of the weather satellites are not really designed to see the ash. There has been a lot of work recently to use the available sensors to see as much as possible. The best way to see it is to use LIDAR. This is a form of radar using lasers. The UK Met office has had considerable luck using this from the ground to look at the ash cloud over the UK.

This event and the oil slick in the Gulf highlight the incredible usefulness of using remote sensing instruments in orbit. They pay for themselves many times over. The USA and Europe have fallen behind in putting these sensors on orbital platforms.

The technology is there, we just need to use it.

Here below is the latest view of the oil slick in the Gulf. Keep in mind you are only seeing the heaviest patch of oil. It is much more widespread than it appears.

True colour image from NASA's Aqua satellite. The thickest oil shows up well. It now appears the oil slick has moved west of the mouth of the Mississippi. Click image for much bigger view.

The movement of both the ash and the oil are very dependent on the atmospheric winds. The winds may start blowing the ash back toward Europe next week. The oil is much more difficult to predict…

Dan

NASA’s AQUA satellite made a pass over Nashville and the Gulf at 1850GMT today. (1:50pm Central U.S. summer time).

The flooded rivers around Nashville are clearly evident in the image (see below). Nashville is at the center of the image. Accurate rain gauges from Central Tennessee show a rain event of incredible proportions. Areas around Nashville had over 17 inches of rain in 24 hours. This is more than one third the annual rain for Nashville in one day!

Image of flooded rivers around Nashville (dead center of image). The Grand Ole Opry has water up to the stage. NASA AQUA MODIS image.

A few minutes later the satellite passed over the Gulf and spotted the thickest part of the oil slick. The slick is much bigger than it looks in this image. You are seeing only the thickest part.

Oil slick is visible just SE of the mouth of the Miss. River. (Bottom left of image) From NASA AQUA Satellite at 1850 GMT. Click image for full size.

Ocean currents are driven in a large part by winds and the winds will be picking back up again in 48 hours.

Oil slick forecast from NOAA for 23GMT Wednesday 5 May. (6 pm US Central Summer Time)

Some oil is now likely to be pushed to the WEST of the Mississippi Delta. The forecast of the oil slick for tomorrow at 6 pm CDT shows the oil may very well have arrived at shore along the Delta in Louisiana.

This data is based on ocean models being run by NOAA. These models also take into account the wind.

If the oil continues to leak into the Gulf over a long period, the currents will spread it eastward toward Florida. The gulf loop current will eventually pick it up and take it around Florida and out into the Gulf Stream.

How far it goes depends on how much is leaking and how long it leaks…

Both of those estimates remain very fuzzy.

Dan

PS More info coming soon on the ash from Iceland’s volcano…

NASA Modis image taken at 11:35 AM CDT. The oil has spread into Louisiana and is now due South of the Florida Coast. Strong southerly winds will likely spread it onto shore over the weekend. Click image for full size.

The offshore weather buoys are now indicating winds of 20 knots sustained from the south. This will mix the oil some but also push it toward shore.

More soon.

Image from NASA Modis Satellite 2 pm UK time. The thinning ash cloud is being absorbeb by a low pressure SE of Iceland.

Great news for air travelers this evening. The eruption in Iceland is now putting out much less ash and the cloud is much lower. The low level ash is not headed toward the UK as the image above shows.

The snow-cap that covered the volcano has melted away. This has reduced the steam/ash combination that was climbing to over 3,000 meters.

Even more good news tonight. The upper level and lower level winds will push any new ash cloud to the North of the UK and France. It looks likely that airports will be opening across Western Europe tomorrow and this is now being confirmed by the BBC.

Click image for the full resolution! The ash layer is at 10-16,000 feet now instead of the higher altitudes over the weekend. From NASA. This new cloud is headed toward the UK.

There is actually some good news tonight. The ash cloud over Europe has diminished and begun to sink south of Paris and London. Here is the outlook for tomorrow regarding the no go areas.

Ash extent forecast for Tuesday 7 am London time. From UK Met Office.

Most of England is in the clear by 1 PM! From UK Met Office.

Late word tonight that the eruption has picked back up. The current wind flow will steer the new ash cloud toward the UK, Central England in particular. So the openings of the airports tomorrow may be brief. See below.

The ash will be at a lower altitude but it may become more dense and put an end to the planned reopening of the airspace over the UK tomorrow. Further east there is more hope for flights.