Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Chris Mooney and Michael Specter along with others did a lecture at MIT last April. MIT has put the video up online and it is well worth a view.

The topic was denialism and disinformation. How can so many people believe things that someone tells them with no critical thinking. (My post on Authoritarians goes along with this quite well I suspect)

I regularly get asked if the world is going to end in 2012, and amazingly I am still getting comments from buyers defending their purchase of the iRenew and Q-Ray bracelets!

I enjoy the stories but the day to day forecast is worthless.

I always enjoy reading the stories in the Farmers Almanac. It’s been around for a LONG time and they have good basic astronomical info in it. Although you can get much more precise info from free programs like Stellarium.

About this time every year they release their forecast for the upcoming winter. TV stations everywhere gobble it up and do news stories on what the coming winter will be like.

Great free publicity!

Just to be clear here, the day to day forecasts are made up. They will not have any accuracy over that of a pure guess.

Some real science: An average of all moderate to strong La Nina's shows a milder than normal winter for much of the U.S. and Eastern Canada.

If you want to know what the winter will be like, the only think I can tell you is that with a moderate to strong La Nina brewing, the Southeast will likely have a drier and slightly milder than  normal winter. The odds of this are about 65%. That means there is a 35% chance it will be colder than normal here!

Other parts of the country will vary. See the graphics.

This kind of long range forecast is only possible because the La Nina pattern of colder than normal water in the Equatorial Pacific will cause a fairly predictable shift in the storm track over North America. The affects will actually be felt world wide.

Temperature anomalies for January during La Nina events. Images from NOAA. Click for full size image.

However, not every La Nina winter is the same. Each one is slightly different. Sometimes the La Nina pattern will hardly show up at all in some areas. Sometimes the expected warm areas are super warm.

The temperature anomalies in January for La Nina years shows that it’s quite warm in the Southeast U.S. most of the time but not always. The La Nina winters of 1971 and 1976 were slightly below normal over the Eastern U.S.

A scientific forecast would be for a good chance of having a mild winter in the Southeast. For those of you in Western Canada, a colder than normal winter seems like a good bet. Sometimes it is a super cold winter as well.

Just what you folks in Edmonton wanted to hear, isn’t it!

Later,
Dan

I recently read a fascinating book. It’s called the Authoritarians and it was written by Robert Altemeyer. Altemeyer is a professor of Psychology at the University of Manitoba. You can read his  book online for free or buy it from amazon.com.

I stumbled  across it doing research on climate skepticism. I have often wondered why some people are totally immune to facts. I’m talking about the kind of person who, if you tell them the sky is blue, and walk outside and show them the sky is blue, will still tell someone a day later that the sky is not blue!

Why do I care?

Basically I want to know when I am wasting my time talking with someone! Not just about climate science but nearly any kind of science! If Altemeyer is right, then if the person I am talking to is a strong authoritarian, then I am truly wasting my time. Nothing I can say and no amount of scientific fact will change their mind.

Am I one?

Reading the book, the first thing I started wondering about was the obvious question- Am I an authoritarian???

Thankfully, according to the test devised by Altemeyer I’m not!

This is good since his research indicates that people who are, tend to be more likely to be prejudiced, and to commit torture and other crimes in the name of the government. They have a high degree of obedience to established authorities. They also tend to be lower educated and have almost no ability to do critical thinking.

Most importantly they tend to be heavy traditionalists.  In a sense they are the opposite of those bumper stickers you see that say question authority!

The American Assoc. for The Advancement of Science awarded Altemeyer the Behavioral Science Prize for his research. (The AAAS is one of the world’s top science organizations.)

The reason these people cannot be convinced by facts is that they let others do their thinking for them. In fact, they seem to have almost no critical thinking skills.They are more likely to associate with others who have their viewpoints than the average person. So much so that they rarely meet others who have differing opinions and only watch TV news that agrees with their viewpoint as well.

So you may be wondering by now if you are an authoritarian! If not, you probably are!

You can read the book and take the test and score yourself. I highly recommend reading it. The research says that those who are strong authoritarians will not finish it. Moreover it predicts I will get nasty notes and maybe even death threats for talking about it!

I will let you know if that happens!

The Test

Here are 3 questions from the 22 question test. You answer on a scale of +4= strongly agree to -4 strongly disagree. Any number you choose from +4 to -4 is OK and scored differently.

5. It is always better to trust the judgment of the proper authorities in government and
religion than to listen to the noisy rabble-rousers in our society who are trying to create
doubt in people’s minds
___ 6. Atheists and others who have rebelled against the established religions are no doubt every bit as good and virtuous as those who attend church regularly.
___ 7. The only way our country can get through the crisis ahead is to get back to our traditional values, put some tough leaders in power, and silence the troublemakers spreading bad ideas.

Intrigued??

One question more from the test-

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH NUDIST CAMPS.
Are you a plus 4 or a -4 or somewhere in between??

Apparently about 15% of the population are authoritarians. Altemeyer calls them “right wing authoritarians” but cautions that right wing does not have the same political meaning it does in America.

What is even more interesting is that research has shown that about 15% of the population thinks climate change is a hoax or a conspiracy and this is about the same number of people who are high authoritarians. Just a coincidence? I do not think so after reading the book.

His research is certainly controversial, but it is science, and therefore fair game for this journal. While his research has gotten rave reviews there are a few psychologists that disagree.  Not many it seems…

My score and opinion are my own and I will keep them to myself. Fascinating though, very fascinating…

Comments welcome, but read the comment policy first because I will apply it very stringently to this post.

Jack Horkheimer. Exec. Director of the Miami Space Transit Museum. He died Friday.

His signature sign-off was “KEEP LOOKING UP!”

Jack Horkheimer was the star of the PBS series Star Gazer and taught millions to look up at the night sky in wonder. He was a grand ambassador for science. He died on Friday, and the astronomy world is the poorer for it.

You can file a complaint with the FTC over these scams. Click the image above to go to the FTC web page.

In the two months since I wrote the post about what a scam the iRenew bracelet was, I have had more comments than any other post I have ever written. Mostly from people who like me are amazed that people will fall for it. Many other comments explain very well why these scammers will make millions of dollars. The adverts are now all over Fox news and other outlets on late night cable TV.

Q-Ray Is A Scam Too

Do not think I’m exaggerating either. A similar piece of junk, the Q-Ray bracelet has already gotten into trouble with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and were ordered to provide 64 million dollars in refunds. I bet that is a drop in the bucket compared to how much they got away with. You can find out more about the Q-Ray scam and the lawsuits against them on Quackwatch.

While I’m On The Subject Of Scams…

A new scam for those that slept though junior high science Class. Can you say horse hockey? I knew you could...

I saw a new one being touted on twitter the other day. The Zero Point Magnetic Generator. It usually the revolutionary idea of perpetual motion to make free power for your home. Perpetual motion scams have been around for many decades and they have taken millions from the scientifically illiterate.

Just to be clear here- Perpetual motion violates the second law of thermodynamics. That means it will not, cannot, and NEVER will work. Period. A similar scam using a tank of water in your car boot to make hydrogen runs along similar lines.  It’s just as much a scam as the rest.

I mentioned some of those comments I have received on the first post. Many more were political in nature and off topic so they did not get approved. I tried to be more generous than usual in my editing, and here are my fave’s below (with the replies I have held off making).

Comments:

1.after wearing bracelet for 1 week i gained incredible strength, lost 50 lbs, attracted women by the dozen andit cured my cancer. lol people are so &^%ing stupid. I can imagine all the idiots running to their mailboxes in anticipation of their miracle cure. Thanks for putting at least 1 honest review of this scam.

Dan: Your Welcome!

2.Jack Rand

Actually I do have an iRenew bracelet, and it has worked for me! I really don’t care why it works, I only care that it makes me feel better. After I bought the bracelets online I got some pdfs from irenew. After reading a little bit about the theory behind this technology, I did a bit more digging and found this video from the same authors. The video called “The Living Matrix” is really amazing. It really breaks down a handful of technologies being used to help restore or heal a person’s body field.

Dan: Jack you missed the point! There is no such thing as a “body field”. See Barnum P.T. and Gary Stephens reply below.

3. You know – I have to add one thing – If you buy one of these, you should need to pass a test before you are allowed to vote. It is certainly one thing to screw yourself but when you vote, now you are passing on your stupidity to the lives of others. So: I-Renew = I shouldn’t vote

and my favourites:

4.what i find amazing is that there is no negative feedback on this product anywhere,(except here)yet,everyone here with negative feed has (never tried) the product. im reminded of a time when the world was once thought to be flat.with that said, if your going to lead the movement,on this so called fake irenew bracelet,at least try the damn thing first!

and gary stephens Reply:
August 14th, 2010 at 10:18 am

you don’t have to stick your head up a chickens ass to know where an egg comes from.

So in closing, while I do not mean to be harsh, if you bought one of these things, or your plans to build a zero point magnetic generator are in the mail, do yourself a favour. Turn off the TV and visit your local library. Might I suggest Tuning into Science Friday on NPR?  Oh, and quit reading the horoscope in your local paper.

That’s a SCAM too!