Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Active region on the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. (Upper left corner of the sun)

CME today from strong sunspot. Courtesy NASA Solar Dynamics Observ.

Space weather experts at NOAA and NASA have been monitoring a very active sunspot over the last few days.

This area has produced several Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). These flares can cause trouble with radio communication and even cause power outages if they hit Earth. Satellites can be especially hard hit. Past solar flares have crippled communication satellites.

A really big flare could cause billions of dollars in damage to the electrical grids and stop HF radio communications for hours.  Commercial passenger flights over the North Pole use HF radio to keep in contact with air traffic control. When there is a large flare the HF frequencies are not usable and these flights must take a longer route.

This sunspot is not facing Earth so these flares have not affected us. The flare is, however,  turning in our direction. If it stays active, then we could see a geomagnetic storm. More than likely the only major effect will be a display of the Aurora in high latitudes.

The folks at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center are only forecasting a 1% chance of a big class M or class X flare, but if you live in the high latitudes, be on the look out for a display of the Aurora Borealis.

Click the image below to see in high res.

Image taken Saturday afternoon June 19 2010. NASA Aqua satellite at 500 meter resolution.

It sure seems to be getting bigger…

Dan

Update: The pic below was Orange Beach last weekend. Image from Karen Parden.

Click the image above for full resolution.

A HUGE bow to Dr. Michael Tobis of Only In It For The Gold. He found this video and posted it.
I am posting it too and EVERY person who blogs about science should post it as well. (Maybe I can start something here!)

I have several heroes (Everyone should have heroes). Carl Sagan, Richard Feynman and Neil DeGrasse Tyson are all near the top. Sagan and Feynman are no longer with us, but Tyson is thank goodness. He has stepped into Sagan’s shoes as the nations scientist. He fills them well.

Very well.

In case you do not know who Tyson is (which means your scientific literacy is lacking but perhaps not horribly so) then go here.

NASA MODIS image taken today June 2, 2010. Click for much larger resolution. The arrows are mine.

The latest pass from the NASA Terra Satellite shows the oil slick has spread across a huge area of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Every new image shows it spreading. Late word is that the slick is now only 9 miles from Pensacola Beach and this image bears that out.

Here is a close up of the image above:

Here is our in house model run over the Gulf for Friday. The arrows are the surface wind vectors. As you can see below, it looks like the oil will continue to be pushed northward. The actual track will be to the right of those arrows due to local currents and the Coriolis affect.

MM5 model showing clouds and wind. Valid Friday evening. Precip. is turned off so you can see the winds and the location of the oil as of Wednesday.

The summer tourism season is what keeps the small beach resorts going all year on the Coast. This is going to be a disaster for them.

NOAA has a forecast out for Friday at Noon. See below.

NOAA forecast of the oil slick for Noon Friday. Click for full resolution.

The red areas in the image above are areas where oil on the beach is expected. The black line is the likely extent of some oil.

I’ll post more info as I get it.

Dan

Some amazing video from NASA today. It was from a camera on the solid rocket booster during the launch of Atlantis last week. I think the second clip here is the best. Watch the clock and notice how quickly the sky changes from the bright blue of a spring day in Florida to the black of space.

Less than two minutes.

The layer of air surrounding our planet is frightfully thin. Yet, it’s all that protects us from the harsh radiation and vacuum that is our universe.