Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Hurricane Darby in the Pacific (120 mph sustained winds) and a tropical wave south of cuba that may be developing. NOAA GOES image.

It seems we may have our first Atlantic Basin tropical system forming this evening. I’ve been here in Miami all week at the annual AMS Conference on Broadcast Meteorology. This is the 38th Broadcast Conference and one of the best I’ve attended.

The Director of the National Hurricane Center and many of their forecasters put on an excellent seminar Wednesday on tropical meteorology.  Director Bill Read also spoke at our luncheon today.

View from my room of Miami Beach.

The NOAA forecasters and broadcast meteorologists like myself know how important our jobs are in hurricane season. It really is helpful to both groups to understand the problems we each face. Many are very similar and some are rather different.

Tonight, we’re all interested in a system that seems to be organizing in the Western Caribbean. An Air Force Reserve plane is currently investigating to see if a tropical depression has formed.

With a La Nina brewing and record warm waters in the oceans, a late June storm would not be surprising. We get one about 50% of the time. Most of the hurricanes form after August 1st each year.

It’s too early to say much about this system but if it forms it might enter the western Gulf in a few days. Swell from a storm would likely have a big impact on the work around the oil spill, so this could be of extreme importance.

I met the Director of the NHC for the first time today. Say what you will about government, but they got the right man for that job. The forecasters and researchers who work under him are top notch as well, and all of the broadcasters were VERY appreciative of the tremendous seminar and presentations the hurricane specialists put together.

Without doubt we all have one thing in common. We are all very passionate about giving the best information possible to the public.

I’ll post an update if the plane finds a closed circulation.

Update 7:22 PM EDT Fri 25 June:

The recon plane has found a closed circulation and the NHC has begun advisories on TD One. The latest probabilities on tropical storm force winds are below:

From NOAA/TPC/NHC Forecast from Friday evening. Do not use after tonight.

More soon.

The Iceland Volcano ash cloud is clearly visible in this image taken from space today. Image from NASA Aqua satellite in true colour. click image for much bigger version.

The ash is back.

Ireland has just announced airspace closings for tomorrow and there is now concern that the ash may start to seriously effect flights in the UK. If Gatwick and Heathrow in London shut down the impact will be felt worldwide.

Winds at 10,000 feet for tomorrow night. Wind will flow paralell to the black lines. Model data ctsy. Penn State.

Looking at the model data tonight, the greatest threat seems to be Ireland but there may be a narrow window late tomorrow when the ash will be funneled by the upper level winds toward the UK. Late in the week a high will build south of Iceland and this should keep the ash away from Europe for a few days.

One bit of good news. The ash is mainly below 20,000 feet. This means a transatlantic flright from Amsterdam or Paris will be able to fly well above it.

The airspace shut down a couple of weeks ago was much more severe because the ash was up to 34,000 feet. (I know I usually do all metric on this blog but air traffic around the world still uses flight levels in feet)

Now another image from the same satellite.

In the previous post I showed the image from the Aqua satellite pass over Nashville today.

I went back and grabbed a shot taken just about a year ago of the same area. The before and after images show very well the magnitude of the floods.

Here is the image from May 21 2009.

AQUA image of Nashville and Middle TN. on 21 May 2009. Nashville is dead center in the image. The Cumberland River is visible but not easily. Click for full res. Ctsy. NASA.

Now here is the image from my previous post showing the same area today at 1850 GMT (1:50 pm local Nashville time).

The image taken today shows the magnitude of the severe flood.

Could this flood be related to climate change? Possibly. I wrote a post on that a few days ago.

More soon,

Dan

The unpronounceable Volcano is causing air traffic problems again. Photo from Iceland Met Office. Photo by Olafur Sigurjonsson

Ireland is closing it’s airspace at 7am Tuesday morning because of ash. The ash is below 20,000 feet so it may not be too disruptive to transatlantic air traffic. The ash is expected to drift over the UK later Tuesday and this may impact Heathrow and Gatwick. If that happens, you will see major disruptions.

Below is the latest forecast from the UK Met office:

Ash forecast courtesy UK Met Office.

The eruption shows no sign of abating. Thankfully, Katla the more dangerous volcano nearby is (so far) quiet.

I’ll post updates if things change. Looking at the upper air charts as well…
dan

Image of Gulf oil slick at 1640 GMT today. It's much bigger. The mouth of the Mississippi is on the left. NASA image.

Tornadoes hit Arkansas last night and today and have also done damage in Miss. and Tennessee. Incredible rainfall totals of near or over 10 inches have ben reported across a wide swath of Tennessee. I just saw a recent report of a destroyed mobile home seen FLOATING down I-24 near Nashville.

Estimated rainfall from the Doppler radar in Nashville. Over 8 inches have fallen just SW of Nashville. I-40 is covered by water and closed in sections. Image from NWS Nexrad 88D NE of Nashville.

A pass by one of NASA’s MODIS satellites at 11:40am (1640GMT) shows the oil slick in the Gulf has gotten much larger.

A wider view of Gulf oil slick from NASA MODIS. Click for larger image.

NOAA has now issued a rare PDS Tornado Watch for Arkansas and Louisiana. PDS stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation. More flooding rains along with tornadoes are likely overnight.

Please remember if you know someone who lives in a mobile home, tell them to NEVER stay in it during a tornado warning. It’s also a good idea to keep in mind that more people die each year driving into a flooded road than are killed by tornadoes.

Dan

Dan's photo.

The EF 3 tornado that hit Albertville developed very rapidly. It first touched down just west of the city. It was on the ground for about 30 minutes and lifted near Geraldine in Dekalb County. We were able to give nearly 30 minutes warning for the folks in Geraldine. Albertville had 7 to 8 minutes.

That may not sound like much, but for a town at the beginning of the track, that is actually very good. Especially in this case.

Look at the radar images.

Velocity data shows a weak and ragged circulation, at 10:07 PM, as the storm enters Marshall County.

At 10:07 PM the velocity data showed a ragged circulation in the storm as it entered Marshall County Alabama. It takes the radar about 6 minutes to do a complete scan at several elevations. This is called a volume scan.

One volume scan later at 10:14 PM a strong circulation has developed. The NWS office in Huntsville issues a Tornado Warning. We had been keeping a weary eye on this cell.  I was doing the 10 PM  weather and we immediately urged the folks in Albertville to “take cover right now!”.

One volume scan of the radar later- a strong circulation is present. Tornado Warning being issued.

At 10:22 pm the radar data shows a very intense circulation with winds over 100 knots. The circulation is very near Albertville.

10:21 PM: An intense rotation is near Albertville. The tornado struck at 10:22 PM. (Pink is high winds away from the radar, and cyan is strong wind toward the radar. Radar located at top of image.

I talked with an Albertville city councilman who is also a state trooper.  He was off duty, but looked at his watch as he saw the tornado lift a giant tree out of the ground.

It was 10:22pm.

Albertville had around 7-8 minutes of warning.

Much more than most cities right at the beginning of a track will usually get.

This is why you should have a NOAA weather radio. Even if you have the TV on, you may be in another room or preoccupied. That warning siren might give you enough time to get to shelter. If you are very close to where the tornado is developing, you may only have seconds.

When it comes to tornado warnings, 7 minutes is a lifetime to a severe weather nowcaster.