Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal

Colder than normal water is already appearing in the Equatorial Pacific (NOAA)

One of the reasons for the forecasts of a an active hurricane season is the predictions that La Nina would develop this summer. Remember that La Nina is an ocean circulation phase that brings unusually cold water to the surface of the Tropical Pacific.

These are the temperature probabilities for a normal/above/below normal autumn (September through Novermber). Click for full resolution image.

Well, it has started and most of the ocean atmosphere models are predicting a moderate to strong event.

This has more impact than just the number of hurricanes. NOAA revised their 2010 hurricane prediction down somewhat today but they are still predicting a 70% chance of 4-6 major hurricanes (Earlier typo said 406- that would be exceptionally bad ). La Nina is a big factor in that.

The colder tropical waters cause a shift in the jet stream. This makes it possible to make a decent prediction of the fall and winter ahead. Here in the Southeastern USA we tend to have a dry fall with normal to above normal  temps. The winter tends to be drier than  normal and sometimes a bit on the mild side.

What about where you live?
The chart at the right shows the probabilities for temperatures during a La Nina event. The image is for the period from September through November.

Take a look at the Northeast USA and Eastern Canada. The chart shows that during a La Nina year the odds are VERY low that the autumn will be below normal. The odds are higher that it will be near normal and the odds are higher still that it will be a warm autumn.

This does not mean that it will not be colder than normal. It just means that in the past this happened rarely.

You can see more of these graphics for your part of the world at the IRI website here. Precipitation maps are also available.

Hurricane Alex IR image (Courtesy if CIMMS U Wisc.)

Hurricane Alex is already producing flooding along the South Texas Coast as it nears landfall. Winds are at 90 mph in the eye wall near the center. The amount of storm surge is VERY dependent on the shape of ocean bottom and the angle the storm comes into the coast. So don’t assume that a category one storm will not produce serious flooding. It can.

Meteorologist Alan Raymond of our staff spent last night flying into Alex with the Hurricane Hunter aircraft based at Keesler AFB in Mississippi.

Alex is the first June hurricane since 1995. Most tropical storms develop after August 1st each year.

Dan

Update 6pm CDT- Alex is now a Cat Two storm with 100 mph winds.

Rainfall estimates from the Oklahoma City NOAA WSR88D radar. Over 10 inches caused massive flooding in the city yesterday.

I wrote a post awhile back (See TENNESSEE FLOODS- CLIMATE RELATED?) on the possible climate connections to the Nashville flood. Since then we have had another two major events.  One in Arkansas that killed 20 and just this week a deluge in Oklahoma City that caused all three major interstates to be closed and a day of rescues.

As I said in the previous post, you cannot blame any one weather event on climate change, but with the atmosphere holding about 7% more water vapor (Because the planet is warmer) it is very suspicious that we are seeing so many 100 and 1000 year floods.

Joe Romm over at the blog Climate Progress has an interview with Kevin Trenbirth of NOAA NCAR that is well worth listening to. My buddy Stu Ostro at the Weather Channel gets a mention too.

It’s about this very topic. This on the same day that NOAA announces that May 2010 like April was the warmest on the thermometer record.

The data seems to be adding up. As far as normal weather goes, we live in a different world than existed in the 1950′s and 1960′s.

Dan

Hottest May on record. From NCDC-NOAA

NOAA and NASA both do an independent global temp analysis. NASA released their data a couple of days ago for May. The National Climate Data Center released their May data today. The extreme warmth in the northern latitudes is expected with warming from increased greenhouse gases. Northern areas will warm faster than areas further south for several reasons, among them the ice albedo feedback.

Both indicate that May 2010 was the warmest month globally since reliable records began in 1880. This comes with an unusually quiet sun that is just now beginning to become active again. (This solar cycle will peak in 2013 and is forecasted to be fairly mild).

The NASA data had May at 6.3C above the mean (1951-1980). Here below is the NASA data:

GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius   base period: 1951-1980

                  sources: GHCN 1880-05/2010 + SST:   1880-11/1981 HadISST1
                                                   12/1981-05/2010 Reynolds v2
                    using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment
                    Notes: 1950 DJF = Dec 1949 - Feb 1950 ;  ***** = missing

                                                                     AnnMean
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1880   -41  -27  -25  -31  -31  -39  -24  -15  -31  -27  -22  -26    -28****  *****  -29  -26  -26  1880
1881   -20  -27   -1   -6  -10  -33  -13  -11  -27  -30  -38  -29    -20 -20    -24   -6  -19  -32  1881
1882   -11   -3  -10  -31  -26  -34  -28  -15  -25  -37  -36  -55    -26 -24    -14  -22  -26  -33  1882
1883   -45  -40  -17  -22  -26  -13   -9  -24  -34  -34  -34  -28    -27 -29    -47  -22  -15  -34  1883
1884   -26  -19  -36  -40  -38  -36  -28  -20  -32  -34  -36  -35    -32 -31    -24  -38  -28  -34  1884
1885   -62  -35  -24  -42  -35  -42  -29  -26  -25  -27  -24  -10    -32 -34    -44  -34  -32  -25  1885
1886   -39  -45  -33  -21  -22  -33   -8  -21  -21  -36  -34  -32    -29 -27    -31  -25  -21  -30  1886
1887   -65  -54  -36  -42  -30  -22   -9  -27  -26  -41  -35  -40    -36 -35    -50  -36  -19  -34  1887
1888   -43  -48  -46  -35  -28  -25  -18  -23  -19  -11   -5  -21    -27 -28    -44  -36  -22  -11  1888
1889   -23    7   -2   -3   -7  -13  -17  -24  -21  -32  -37  -33    -17 -16    -12   -4  -18  -30  1889
1890   -49  -42  -35  -35  -51  -39  -30  -37  -39  -25  -51  -34    -39 -39    -41  -40  -35  -38  1890
1891   -49  -53  -18  -31  -21  -23  -23  -20  -18  -25  -38   -9    -27 -29    -45  -23  -22  -27  1891
1892   -37  -12  -34  -44  -33  -22  -30  -29  -21  -28  -43  -46    -32 -28    -19  -37  -27  -31  1892
1893   -82  -58  -20  -36  -38  -28  -10  -26  -26  -17  -19  -33    -33 -34    -62  -31  -21  -21  1893
1894   -50  -33  -24  -43  -35  -42  -19  -23  -35  -26  -37  -27    -33 -33    -38  -34  -28  -33  1894
1895   -54  -50  -30  -26  -29  -21  -18  -18  -11  -16  -12  -19    -25 -26    -44  -28  -19  -13  1895
1896   -23  -17  -30  -37  -14  -11   -4   -8   -8    3  -13  -10    -14 -15    -20  -27   -8   -6  1896
1897   -17  -15  -16   -6   -2  -10   -3   -7  -11  -11  -19  -13    -11 -11    -14   -8   -7  -14  1897
1898     0  -24  -46  -26  -34  -17  -20  -22  -20  -28  -37  -26    -25 -24    -12  -35  -19  -29  1898
1899   -20  -38  -27  -15  -15  -26   -8   -5   -7   -1   14  -26    -15 -15    -28  -19  -13    2  1899
1900   -33    6   -1  -10   -7   -6   -7   -8   -5    2  -13   -6     -7  -9    -18   -6   -7   -5  1900

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1901   -19   -1    3   -2  -13  -13  -14  -17  -21  -25  -22  -26    -14 -13     -9   -4  -15  -23  1901
1902   -13    5  -22  -24  -27  -27  -17  -26  -25  -32  -40  -45    -24 -23    -12  -25  -23  -32  1902
1903   -25    5  -13  -36  -32  -42  -26  -38  -43  -41  -31  -42    -30 -31    -21  -27  -35  -38  1903
1904   -54  -46  -33  -41  -40  -33  -32  -33  -38  -30  -11  -23    -34 -36    -47  -38  -33  -26  1904
1905   -29  -53  -19  -31  -28  -24  -20  -17  -16  -24   -8  -20    -24 -24    -35  -26  -20  -16  1905
1906   -26  -30  -18   -2  -20  -13  -21  -11  -20  -13  -36  -12    -19 -19    -25  -13  -15  -23  1906
1907   -42  -48  -26  -45  -49  -43  -36  -39  -28  -24  -43  -42    -39 -36    -34  -40  -39  -32  1907
1908   -40  -26  -45  -40  -33  -25  -22  -33  -21  -30  -39  -39    -33 -33    -36  -39  -27  -30  1908
1909   -58  -39  -42  -45  -42  -38  -32  -19  -22  -21  -18  -40    -35 -34    -45  -43  -30  -20  1909
1910   -31  -32  -34  -33  -34  -33  -19  -24  -29  -32  -41  -55    -33 -32    -34  -34  -25  -34  1910
1911   -52  -47  -49  -48  -41  -38  -23  -28  -25  -19  -17  -17    -34 -37    -51  -46  -30  -20  1911
1912   -24  -12  -32  -19  -20  -19  -39  -52  -45  -52  -32  -35    -32 -30    -18  -24  -37  -43  1912
1913   -37  -34  -38  -34  -38  -43  -28  -24  -27  -32  -20   -3    -30 -32    -35  -37  -32  -26  1913
1914    -3  -11  -22  -25  -16  -17  -18  -14  -17   -1  -17  -16    -15 -14     -6  -21  -16  -12  1914
1915   -22   -8  -15    0   -1   -2   -1  -11   -7  -20   -9  -19    -10  -9    -15   -5   -5  -12  1915
1916   -18  -17  -33  -27  -33  -37  -28  -22  -28  -19  -37  -64    -30 -27    -18  -31  -29  -28  1916
1917   -42  -52  -47  -39  -55  -36  -17  -22  -17  -37  -30  -69    -39 -38    -53  -47  -25  -28  1917
1918   -51  -45  -29  -44  -47  -34  -26  -37  -23   -7  -21  -33    -33 -36    -55  -40  -33  -17  1918
1919   -16  -20  -18   -9  -17  -18  -17  -14  -12  -19  -45  -33    -20 -20    -23  -15  -17  -25  1919
1920   -12  -21    0  -13   -9  -17  -23  -18  -19  -26  -28  -45    -19 -18    -22   -7  -19  -24  1920

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1921    -5  -17  -14  -16  -20  -13    0  -26  -21   -8  -16  -17    -14 -17    -22  -16  -13  -15  1921
1922   -33  -37  -21  -26  -31  -25  -18  -26  -30  -26  -16  -19    -26 -26    -29  -26  -23  -24  1922
1923   -24  -28  -23  -35  -36  -22  -27  -31  -27   -9    2   -1    -22 -23    -24  -31  -27  -11  1923
1924   -23  -26   -9  -32  -22  -21  -19  -21  -24  -24  -13  -30    -22 -20    -17  -21  -20  -20  1924
1925   -32  -27  -18  -18  -24  -28  -20  -13  -16  -21    0   15    -17 -21    -30  -20  -20  -12  1925
1926    20   11   23   -8  -14  -15   -8    1   -5   -1   -5  -21     -2   1     15    0   -7   -4  1926
1927   -20   -6  -31  -24  -21  -17   -5  -16   -8    3   -1  -30    -15 -14    -16  -25  -12   -2  1927
1928     3   -3  -18  -24  -24  -28  -10  -15  -10  -11    0   -7    -12 -14    -10  -22  -18   -7  1928
1929   -32  -43  -23  -31  -31  -32  -26  -24  -21   -7   -1  -41    -26 -23    -27  -28  -27   -9  1929
1930   -16  -14   -4  -17  -18  -15   -9   -4   -8   -9   17    0     -8 -11    -24  -13   -9    0  1930
1931     0  -17   -2  -14  -11    4   11    3   -8    5   -2    1     -2  -3     -6   -9    6   -2  1931
1932    15  -14  -13   -4  -11  -19  -10  -11    2    2  -16  -16     -8  -6      1   -9  -13   -4  1932
1933   -22  -19  -18  -15  -16  -19   -7  -11  -19  -15  -25  -39    -19 -17    -19  -17  -12  -20  1933
1934   -16    1  -25  -24   -5   -5    0   -5  -14   -1    9    4     -7 -10    -18  -18   -4   -2  1934
1935   -26   23   -4  -28  -23  -15  -11  -12  -14    0  -22  -12    -12 -11      0  -18  -13  -12  1935
1936   -21  -28  -15  -11  -10   -7   12    0   -2    6    7   10     -5  -7    -20  -12    2    4  1936
1937     3   20   -7   -9    2    4    9    8   18   15   19    0      7   8     11   -5    7   17  1937
1938    15    9   23   20    6   -3    8    6   12   20   16  -10     10  11      8   16    4   16  1938
1939     1   -2  -14   -7   -1    1    5   -2    0   -4    5   37      1  -2     -4   -8    1    0  1939
1940   -17    0    3   11    4    4   19   -3    7    2    6   12      4   6      7    6    7    5  1940

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1941    10   21    3   14    9    7   13    1  -13   20   11   21     10   9     14    9    7    6  1941
1942    21   -9   -1    0    8    5    1   -2    1    2    3    5      3   4     11    2    1    2  1942
1943   -13   12   -8    8   16    2   15    5    4   23   19   25      9   7      1    5    8   15  1943
1944    35   24   20   10   19   12   18   15   26   24   16   12     19  20     28   16   15   22  1944
1945    16   11   11   17   -3    0    3   14    0    8    6   -8      6   8     13    9    6    4  1945
1946    12    7   -4    6   -7  -14   -2  -19   -3   -4   -4  -26     -5  -3      4   -1  -12   -4  1946
1947    -3   -1   14    5   -3   -7   -2   -4   -7   12   12  -11      0  -1    -10    5   -4    6  1947
1948    13   -9   -8   -5    5    4  -10   -8   -9    0   -5  -20     -4  -3     -2   -3   -4   -5  1948
1949    14  -16   -4  -11   -8  -20  -10   -5   -6   -1   -6  -10     -7  -8     -7   -8  -12   -4  1949
1950   -25  -27   -2  -18  -14   -5   -8  -19  -11  -16  -29  -10    -15 -15    -21  -12  -11  -19  1950
1951   -31  -39  -17   -9    2   -3   -1   12    9   14    3   18     -4  -6    -27   -8    2    9  1951
1952    14   14   -8    6    0    4    8   10    9   -3  -13   -3      3   5     15   -1    7   -2  1952
1953    11   18   16   19    8    5    6   10   10   10    2   15     11   9      9   14    7    8  1953
1954   -17   -3   -7   -9  -16  -12  -21  -17  -12   -3   13  -11    -10  -7     -2  -11  -16   -1  1954
1955    19  -13  -28  -16  -17  -12   -6   11   -7    1  -21  -28    -10  -8     -2  -20   -2   -9  1955
1956   -15  -23  -22  -21  -22  -13   -8  -24  -14  -20  -17   -6    -17 -19    -22  -22  -15  -17  1956
1957    -6    3    2   10   12   16    1   12    8    4   12   17      8   6     -3    8   10    8  1957
1958    41   23   14    4    7   -8    8   -1   -3    5    5    4      8   9     27    9    0    2  1958
1959    11   11   22   16   10    7    7    1   -8   -3   -7    4      6   6      9   16    5   -6  1959
1960     1   18  -32  -13   -6   -3    0    6    5    6   -9   20     -1  -2      8  -17    1    0  1960

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1961     5   21   10   11   22   12    1    3    8    7    5  -15      7  10     15   14    5    7  1961
1962     5   18   12   11  -10    7   -3   -5    2    1    8    0      4   3      3    5    0    4  1962
1963     1   19  -13   -7   -2    6   14   26   25    9   14    3      8   8      7   -8   15   16  1963
1964    -5   -8  -26  -33  -28   -2   -5  -24  -37  -30  -20  -30    -21 -18     -3  -29  -11  -29  1964
1965   -10  -18  -10  -19   -6  -11  -20   -6  -16   -6   -6   -5    -11 -13    -19  -12  -12  -10  1965
1966   -16   -1   11  -11   -7   -2   11   -5    1  -15    0   -4     -3  -3     -8   -3    2   -5  1966
1967    -7  -23    7   -2   11   -6    6    1    0   10   -2   -1     -1  -1    -11    6    0    3  1967
1968   -22  -14   24   -4   -9    0   -7   -5  -14   13   -3  -12     -4  -4    -12    4   -4   -1  1968
1969    -7   -9   -2   20   13   11   -4    0    9   14   16   30      8   4     -9   10    3   13  1969
1970    10   23    9    4   -5   -2   -1  -12   13    3    4  -12      3   6     21    3   -5    7  1970
1971    -2  -20  -21  -11  -11  -22  -11   -2   -2   -5   -8  -11    -10 -11    -11  -14  -12   -5  1971
1972   -25  -20   -2   -1   -2    6    0   20    5    4   -2   18      0  -2    -19   -2    9    2  1972
1973    26   28   25   24   22   16   10    1    7   13    4   -8     14  16     24   24    9    8  1973
1974   -14  -27   -5  -12   -4   -5   -2   11   -9   -7  -10  -11     -8  -8    -16   -7    1   -9  1974
1975     1    1   11   -3   18   -3   -5  -21   -7  -11  -17  -22     -5  -4     -3    9  -10  -11  1975
1976    -8  -11  -28  -16  -29  -15  -13  -20  -12  -29  -11    0    -16 -18    -14  -24  -16  -17  1976
1977    10   15   15   19   29   22   19   17   -5   -5   12    2     12  12      8   21   19    1  1977
1978     3    8   11    9    1   -9    4  -21    5   -4    6    0      1   1      4    7   -9    3  1978
1979     6  -18    8   10   -6    4   -7    9   18   18   19   39      8   5     -4    4    2   18  1979
1980    21   28   22   24   27   10   18   13   13    8   22    9     18  20     29   24   14   14  1980

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
1981    47   36   43   23   14   20   30   35   12    6   18   29     26  25     31   27   29   12  1981
1982     1    7  -11   -1   12   -1   12   -6    1    2    4   34      4   4     12    0    2    2  1982
1983    43   36   36   26   30   17   13   30   34    9   23   11     26  28     38   31   20   22  1983
1984    23    7   20    2   29   -5   14   13   17    4   -5  -15      9  11     13   17    7    5  1984
1985    15  -13   11    4    5   11   -6   12    7    4   -2    7      5   3     -4    7    6    3  1985
1986    20   37   25   17   15    6    6   11    1    6    1    6     12  13     21   19    8    3  1986
1987    25   37   13   18   16   30   38   15   30   26   22   43     26  23     23   16   28   26  1987
1988    51   35   45   35   38   38   26   28   30   29   -3   19     31  33     43   39   31   19  1988
1989     3   28   27   16    4    5   28   27   31   25    8   26     19  19     17   16   20   22  1989
1990    31   28   66   47   37   30   47   28   17   39   42   36     37  37     28   50   35   33  1990
1991    34   44   27   44   30   49   48   38   39   20   18   24     35  36     38   34   45   26  1991
1992    40   35   36   13   21   15    1    1  -11   -4  -10   12     12  13     33   23    6   -8  1992
1993    26   28   28   16   16   11   13    3   -1   15    2    4     13  14     22   20    9    5  1993
1994    23   -5   19   28   15   33   22   17   30   38   34   25     23  22      7   21   24   34  1994
1995    42   70   43   38    7   35   48   37   22   43   37   23     37  37     45   29   40   34  1995
1996    26   45   32   25   18   17   36   43   24   16   34   31     29  28     31   25   32   25  1996
1997    26   30   46   31   31   50   26   36   39   50   55   52     39  37     29   36   37   48  1997
1998    52   80   56   55   63   69   68   63   42   40   43   48     56  57     61   58   66   41  1998
1999    39   59   25   24   21   34   31   27   28   31   28   33     32  33     49   23   31   29  1999
2000    17   51   47   52   28   35   33   36   31   17   25   21     33  34     34   42   35   24  2000

Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year
2001    38   40   54   40   50   45   51   46   48   44   66   51     48  45     33   48   48   52  2001
2002    71   70   85   55   56   46   56   44   49   49   50   36     56  57     64   65   49   49  2002
2003    65   49   49   48   52   39   49   63   60   66   48   67     55  52     50   50   50   58  2003
2004    52   66   59   51   35   32   20   42   47   58   65   51     48  49     62   48   32   57  2004
2005    68   57   71   62   54   59   56   56   68   72   63   60     62  61     59   62   57   68  2005
2006    43   54   57   46   41   53   42   60   55   58   62   69     53  53     53   48   51   58  2006
2007    87   62   62   66   59   51   53   55   50   53   47   39     57  60     73   63   53   50  2007
2008    14   27   67   43   41   36   53   37   53   54   57   47     44  43     27   50   42   55  2008
2009    53   45   46   48   55   64   64   55   65   60   68   58     57  56     49   50   61   65  2009
2010    69   72   83   73   63***********************************  *********     66   73**********  2010
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year

Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
Multiply that result by 1.8(=9/5) to get changes in degrees Fahrenheit (deg-F).

Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is  14.0 deg-C or 57.2 deg-F,
so add that to the temperature change if you want to use an absolute scale
(this note applies to global annual means only, J-D and D-N !)

Example      --      Table Value :      40
                          change :    0.40 deg-C  or  0.72 deg-F
abs. scale if global annual mean :   14.40 deg-C  or 57.92 deg-F

Arctic sea ice also continues to melt at a faster rate than in the record low year of 2007. Too soon to say if a new record low will be set this September at the end of the summer melt. It will likely be close.

Dan

Digital rainfall estimation off of the Doppler Radar in Little Rock, Arkansas. Nearly 20cm (8 inches) of rain fell overnight in the Ouachita National Forest.

There are many similarities to the flash flood that hit Montgomery County, Arkansas last night and the Big Thompson Canyon flood in Colorado in 1976. Both were National Forest campgrounds near streams. 145 campers died on 31 July in 1976 in the Colorado flood. The death toll now stands at 16 in Arkansas.  Some are still missing.

IR satellite image at 12:45 AM Friday showing the MCS over SW Arkansas. The heavy rain lasted for nearly 5 hours. The dark purple indicates clouds with a temp. of -70C. Clouds that cold would be very high (Over 50,000 feet.)

What Caused It

The flood was caused by what meteorologists call an MCS.

MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System. In other words, a big cluster of thunderstorms. These systems can produce heavy rains as thunderstorms redevelop over the same place for hours. Last night the winds aloft that steer the storms were very light and this contributed to the heavy rainfall.

The MCS was kicked off by a very slow moving upper level low that has been drifting northeast across Texas for the past few days. It moved into Arkansas last night. A flood  gauge near the campground showed a rise in the river of 2.4 meters in one hour! The total rainfall is nearly 20cm or around 7.5 inches of rain.

It’s Happened Before

I was working on-air in Tulsa, Oklahoma during one of these events.  It was Memorial Day weekend in 1984. That night is burned in my memory. That flash flood killed 14 people.

These events are why you should always have a weather radio with you when camping. There are some excellent and inexpensive models available now.

Stream discharge from a river gauge near the campground. (USGS)

Budget Cuts May Impair Warnings

Another part to this story is the flood gauges on rivers. Most of these are put in place by the USGS. Budget cuts are forcing the removal of many of them.  This means there will be fewer gauges that forecasters can rely on to issue short fused warnings. Some gauges with many years of data will no longer be maintained.

Here is a stream gauge near the site of the deadly flood. The stream discharge triples in just a few hours!

The public is always worried about getting hit by a tornado when in reality the main weather killers in America are lightning and flash floods.

A Climate Connection?

One last thing.

If someone tells you this was caused by climate change they are wrong. If someone tells you this was NOT caused by climate change they are also wrong. The atmosphere is holding more water vapor now than it did 40 years ago. What you can say is that as the planet gets warmer, we will likely see heavier and more frequent extreme rainfall events.

Like this one.

Would it have happened anyhow? Possibly. No one can say for sure about any one event.

Dan